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(Last updated: April, 2008)

Publications

2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 1990

2005

Tebaldi, C., R. Smith, D. Nychka, and L.O. Mearns, 2005: Quantifying uncertainty in projections
of regional climate change: A Bayesian approach to the analysis of multi-model ensembles. J. Climate (in press)

2004

Feddema, J., K. Olson, G. Bonan, L. Mearns, W. Washington, and G. Meehl, 2004: A
comparison of a GCM response to historical anthropogenic land cover change and model sensitivity to uncertainty in present day land cover representation. Climate Dynamics (accepted pending revision).
Jones, R. and L. O. Mearns, 2004: Assessing future climate risks. Chapter 5 in Lim, B., I. Carter
and Huq, S., UNDP Adaption Policy Framework (to appear).
Tebaldi, C., R.L. Smith, D. Nychka, and L.O. Mearns, 2004: Quantifying uncertainty in projections
of regional climate change: A Bayesian approach to the analysis of multimodel ensembles. J. Climate (in press).
Tebaldi, C., D. Nychka, and L.O. Mearns, 2004: From global mean responses to regional signals
of climate change: Simple pattern scaling, its limitations (or lack of) and the uncertainty in its results. In: Proceedings of the 18th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences, AMS Annual Meeting, Seattle, WA.

2003

Adams, R.M., B.A. McCarl, and L.O. Mearns, 2003: The economic effects of spatial scale of
climate scenarios: An example from U.S. agriculture. Special issue of Climatic Change on Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture in the Southeast U.S. 60:131-148.
Carbone, G., W. Kiechle, L. Locke, L. Mearns, L. McDaniel, and M. Downton, 2003: Response
of soybeans and sorghum to climate change scenarios in the southeastern United States. Climatic Change 60:73-98.
Carbone, G. J., L. O. Mearns, T. Mavromatis, E. J. Sadler, and D. Stooksbury, 2003: Evaluating
CROPGRO-Soybean Performance for use in Climate Impact Studies. Agronomy Journal, 95: 537-544.
Doherty, R. M., L. O. Mearns, K. R. Reddy, M. Downton, and L. McDaniel, 2003: The effect of
spatial scale of climate scenarios on simulation of cotton yields in the Southeast U.S. Climatic Change 60:99-130.
Ebi, K.L., L.O. Merans, and B. Nyenzi, 2003: Weather and Climate: Changing Human Exposures.
Chapter 2 in A.J. Mc Michael, et al. (eds.) Climate Change and Human Health: Risks and Responses, Geneva: World Health Organization.
Giorgi, F., and L. O. Mearns, 2003: Probability of regional climate change calculated using the Reliability Ensemble Averaging (REA) Method. Geophys. Research Letters 30 (12), 1629, doi:10.1029/2003GL017130.
Giorgi, F., P. Whetton, R. Jones, J. H. Christensen, L. O. Mearns, B. Hewitson, H. von Storch,
R. Francisco, C. Jack , 2001: Emerging Patterns of Simulated Regional Climatic Changes for the 21st Century due to Anthropogenic Forcings. Geophysical Research Letters , 28(17): 3317-3321.
Hamburg, M., J. Lederberg, M. Smolinski, et al. (including L. Mearns), 2003: Slant Emerging
Infectious Diseases of the 21st Century. Report of the Institute of Medicine, National Academy of Sciences.
Leung, L.R., L.O. Mearns, F. Giorgi, and R.L. Wilby, 2003: Regional climate research. Bulletin of
the American Meteorological Society, 84 (1), 89-95.
Mearns, L.O., G. Carbone, R.M. Doherty, E. Tsvetsinskaya, B.A. McCarl, R.M. Adams, and L.
McDaniel, 2003: The uncertainty due to spatial scale of climate scenarios in integrated assessments: An example from U.S. agriculture. Integrated Assessment, 4 (4), 225-235.
Mearns, L.O., F. Giorgi, C. Shields, and L. McDaniel, 2003: Climate scenarios for the
southeastern US based on GCM and regional modeling simulations. Climatic Change 60:7-36.
Mearns, L.O., F. Giogi, P. Whetton, M. Hulme, M. Lal, and D. Pabon, 2003: Guidelines for the
Use of Climate Scenarios Developed from Regional Climate Model Experiments. IPCC, TGCIA Web document.
Mearns, L. O. , 2003: Climatic variability, change, and agriculture in the Southeastern United States:
Guest Editorial. Climatic Change.
Mearns, L. O., 2003: 'GCM Scenarios for the RMGB Region' and 'Global and Regional Climate
Models and possible Scenarios' in Chapter 3, Climate Change Scenarios, in F.H. Wagner (ed.) Rocky Mountain/ Great Basin Regional Climate Change Assessment. Report for the US Global Change Research Program. Utah State University: Logan, UT.pp 44-45; 72-73.
Reddy, K. R., P. R. Doma, L. O. Mearns, M. Boone, H. F. Hodges, A. Richardson, and V. G.
Kakani, 2002: Simulating the impacts of climate change on cotton production in the Mississippi Delta. Climate Research, 22:271-281.
Reilly, J., F. Tubiello, B. McCarl, D. Abers, R. Darwin, K. Fuglie, S. Hollinger, C. Izaurralde,
S. Jagtap, J. Jones, L. Mearns, D. Ojima, E. Paul, K. Paustian, S. Riha, N. Rosenberg, 2003: U. S. Agriculture and Climate Change: New Results, Climatic Change, 57:43-69.
Stone, M. C., R. H. Hotchkiss, and L. O. Mearns, 2003: Water yield responses to high and low
spatial resolution climate change scenarios in the Missouri River Basin. Geophys. Res. Lett. 30 (4):1186.
Tsvetsinskaya, E. A., L. O. Mearns, T. Mavromatis, W. Gao, L. R. McDaniel, and M. W.
Downton, 2003: The efect of spatial scale of climate change scenarios on simulated maize, winter wheat, and rice production production in the Southeastern United States. Climatic Change 60:37-72.

2002

Giorgi, F., and L.O. Mearns , 2002: Calculation of average, uncertainty range, and reliability of
regional climate changes from AOGCM simulations via the "reliability ensemble averaging" (REA) method. Journal of Climate, 15, 1141-1158.
Reddy, K.R., P.R. Doma, L.O. Mearns, M. Boone, H.F. Hodges, A. Richardson, and V.G.
Kakani, 2002: Simulating the impacts of climate change on cotton production in the Mississippi Delta. Clim. Res., 22, 3, 271-281.
Wettstein, J.J. and L.O. Mearns, 2002: The influence of the North Atlantic/Arctic Oscillation on
mean, variance and extremes of temperature in the northeastern Unitd States and Canada. Accepted for publication in Journal of Climate .

2001

Burke, D. et al. (including L.O. Mearns), 2001: Under the Weather: Climate, Ecosystems, and
Infectious Disease. Washington, DC: National Academy Press.
Carter, T.R., E. La Rovere, R. Leemans , L.O. Mearns, N. Nakicenovic, A.B. Pittock, S.
Semenov , and J. Skea, 2001: The development and applications of scenarios in climate change impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability assessment. Chapter 3 in: Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Third Assessment Report of the IPCC. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 145-190.
Easterling, W., L.O. Mearns, and C. Hays, 2001: Comparison of agriculture impacts of climate
change calculated from high and low resolution climate model scenarios. Part II: The effect of adaptations. Climatic Change , 51 (2).
Giorgi, F., and L.O. Mearns, 2001: Calculation of best estimate, confidence, and uncertainty in
regional climate changes from AOGCM simulations via the ' reliability ensemble averaging (REA)' method. J. of Climate 15:1141-1158.
Giorgi, F., P. Whetton, R. Jones, J.H. Christensen, L.O. Mearns, B. Hewitson, and H. Von
Storch, 2001: Emerging patterns of simulated regional climatic changes for the 21st century due to anthropogenic forcings. Geophysical Research Letters, 28 (17), 3317-3327.
Giorgi, F., B. Hewitson, J. Christensen, M. Hulme, H. Von Storch, P. Whetton, R. Jones, L.O.
Mearns, and C. Fu, 2001: Regional climate information: Evaluations and projections. Chapter 10 in: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis . Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of IPCC. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 739-768.
Legates, D., L.O. Mearns, J. Rogers, and J, Winkler, 2000. Climatology. In G.L. Gaile and C.J.
Willmott (eds.), Geography in America. Oxford University Press: Oxford.
Mearns, L.O., 2001: The Issue of Spatial Scale of Climate Scenarios in Regional Climate Change
Impacts Analysis: Examples from Agriculture. In: Planton, S. , C. Hanson, D. Viner and M. Hoepffner (eds.) Proceedings of the ECLAT-2 Toulouse Workshop, 25-27 October, 2000.
Mearns, L.O. and M. Hulme (Coordinating Lead Authors), 2001: Climate scenario development.
Chapter 13 in Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis , Contribution of Working Group II to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 739-768.
Mearns, L.O., W. Easterling, C. Hays and D. Marx, 2001: Comparison of agricultural impacts of
climate change calculated from high and low resolution climate change model scenarios. Part I: The uncertainty due to spatial scale. Climatic Change, 51 (2), 1-42.
Reilly, J. et al., 2001: Agriculture: The Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change
for the United States. US National Assessment of the Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change. Agriculture Section Assessment Team (L.O. Mearns, member), US Global Change Research Program. New York: Cambridge University Press.
Stone, M.C., R.H. Hotchkiss, C.M. Hubbard, T.A. Fontaine, L.O. Mearns, and J.G. Arnold,
2001: Impacts of climate change on the water yield of the Missouri Basin. Journal of the American Water Resources Association.
Tsvetsinskaya, E., L.O. Mearns, and W. Easterling, 2001: Investigating the effect of seasonal plant
growth and development in 3-dimensional atmospheric simulations. Part I: Simulation of surface fluxes over the growing season. Journal of Climate, 14, 692-709.
 
Tsvetsinskaya, E., L.O. Mearns, and W. Easterling, 2001: Investigating the effect of seasonal plant
growth and development in 3-dimensional atmospheric simulations. Part II: Atmospheric response to crop growth and development. Journal of Climate, 14, 711-729.

2000

Brown, R.A., N.J. Rosenberg, W.E. Easterling, C. Hays, and L.O. Mearns, 2000: Potential
productionand environmental switchgrass and traditional crops under current and greenhouse-altered climate in the MINK region of the central United States. Ecology and Agriculture Environment, 78, 31-47.
Easterling, D.R., G.A. Meehl, C. Parmesan, S.A. Changnon, T.R. Karl, and L.O. Mearns, 2000:
Climate extremes: Observations, modeling, and impacts. Science, 289, 2068-2074.
Mearns, L.O. , 2000: Climate change and variability. Chapter 1 in: K.A. Reddy and H.F. Hodges
(eds.), Climate Change and Global Crop Productivity. New York: Center for Agricultural and Biosciences International, 7-35.
Mearns, L.O. ,2000: The importance of spatial scale of climate scenarios for regional climate change
impacts analysis: Implications for regional climate modeling activities. In: Preprints of the 10th PSU/NCAR Mesoscale Users' Workshop, 21-22 June 2000 in Boulder, CO. Boulder: Mesoscale and Microscale Division, NCAR, 127-130.
Mearns, L.O., G. Carbone, W. Gao, L. McDaniel, E. Tsvetsinskaya, B. McCarl, and R. Adams,
2000: The issue of spatial scale in integrated assessments: An example of agriculture in the southeastern U.S. In: Preprints, 11th Symposium on Global Change Studies , 9-14 January 2000, Long Beach, CA.
Meehl, G.A., F. Zwiers, J. Evans, T. Knutson, L.O. Mearns, and P. Whetton, 2000: Trends in
extreme weather and climate events: Issues related to modeling extremes in projections of future climate change. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 81 (3), 427-436.
Meehl, G.A., T. Karl, D.R. Easterling, S. Changnon, R.A. Pielke Jr., D. Changnon, J. Evans, P.
Groisman, T.R. Knutson, K.E. Kunkel, L.O. Mearns, C. Parmesan, R. Pulwarty, T. Root, R.T. Sylves, P. Whetton, and F. Zwiers, 2000: An introduction to trends in extreme weather and climate events: Observations, socioeconomic impacts, terrestrial ecological impacts, and model projections. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 81 (3), 413-416.
Rogers, J., D. Legates, L.O. Mearns, and J. Winkler, 2000: Climatology. In: G.L. Gaile and C.J.
Wilmott (eds.), Geography in America. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press.
Schneider, S.H., W.E. Easterling, and L.O. Mearns, 2000: Adaptation: Sensitivity to natural
variability, agent assumptions and dynamic climate changes. Climatic Change, 45, 203-221.
Trenberth, K.E., K.A. Miller, L.O. Mearns and S.L. Rhodes, 2000: Effects of Changing Climate
on Weather and Human Activities, Earth Science and Human Impacts Series, Global Change Instruction Program, UCAR. Sausalito, CA: University Science Books.
Vinocur, M.G. and L.O. Mearns, 2000: The effects of daily and interannual climate variability on
peanut crop production in Cordoba, Argentina. In: Preprints, 11th Symposium on Global Change Studies, 9-14 January 2000, Long Beach, CA.

1999

Chamiedes, W.L., H. Yu, C. Liu, M. Bergin, Z. Ziuji, L.O. Mearns, W. Gao, C.S. Kiang, R.D.
Saylor, L. Chao, Y. Huang, A. Steiner, and F. Giorgi, 1999: A case study of the effects of atmospheric aerosols and regional haze on agriculture: An oportunity to enhance cro yields in China through emission controls? Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 96, 13626-13633.
 
Doherty, R., and L.O. Mearns, 1999: A Comparison of Simulations of Current Climate from Two
Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean Global Climate Models Against Observations and Evaluation of Their Future Climates . Report to NIGEC. Boulder, CO: ESIG/NCAR.

1997

Mearns, L.O., 1997: On the Use of Statistics to Evaluate Climate Model Experiments. Climatic
Change.
Mearns, L.O. and C. Rosenzweig , 1997: Formation of climate change scenarios incorporating
changes in daily climate variability and application to crop models. In: W. Howe and A. Henderson-Sellers (eds.) Assessing Climate Change: The Story of the Model Evaluation Consortium for Climate Assessment Chap. 15, Harwood Academic Publishers.
Mearns, L.O., C. Rosenzweig, R. Goldberg , 1997: Mean and Variance Change in Climate
Scenarios: Methods, Agricultural Applications, and Measures of Uncertainty. Climatic Change 35 : 367-396.

1996

Giorgi, L., L. Mearns, C. Shields, and L. Mayer, 1996: A Regional Model Study of the Importance
of Local versus Remote Controls of the 1988 Drought and the 1993 Flood over the Central United States. J. Climate 9: 1150-1162.
Mearns, L. O., C. Rosenzweig, and R. Goldberg, 1996: The Effect of Changes in Daily and
Interannual Climatic Variability on CERES-wheat: A Sensitivity Study, Climatic Change, 32 : 257-292.

1995

Brown, B., L. O. Mearns, and L. McDaniel, 1995: Climatological characteristics of spatial scaling
of hourly precipitation. In Preprints of the AMS Ninth Conference on Applied Climatology, January 15-20, 1995. American Meteorlogical Society: Boston, pp. 362-367.
Mearns, L. O., F. Giorgi, L. McDaniel, C. Shields, 1995: Analysis of the diurnal range and
variability of daily temperature in a nested modeling experiment: comparison with observations and 2xCO2 results. Climate Dynamics, 11 :193-209.
Mearns, L. O., 1995: Methodological issues concerning the determination of the effects of changing
climatic variability on crop yields. Climate Change and International Impacts, American Society of Agronomy Special Publication No. 59: ASA, Madison, Wi. Chap. 6, pp. 123-146.
Mearns, L. O., F. Giorgi, L. McDaniel, and C. Shields, 1995: Analysis of the variability of daily
precipitation in a nested modeling experiment: comparison with observations and 2xCO results. Global and Planetary Change, 10 :55-78.

1993

Mearns, L. O., 1993: Implications of global warming on climate variability and the occurrence of
extreme climatic events. In D. A. Wilhite (ed.), Drought Assessment, Management, and Planning: Theory and Case Studies, Boston: Kluwer Publishers, Chap. 7, pp. 109-130.
Fosberg, M. A., L. O. Mearns, and C. Price, 1993: Climate Change – Fire Interactions at the
Global Scale: Predictions and Limitations of Methods. In Crutzen, P.J. and J.G. Goldammer, (eds.). Fire in the Environment: The Ecological, Atmospheric, and Climatic Importance of Vegetation Fires. John Wiley and Sons Ltd. pp. 123-137.
Mearns, L. O., and S. Rhodes, 1993: Report of the Workshop Great Lakes Climate Change
Impacts: Implications for Environmental Restoration, held 28-29 April, 1992. ICS and ESIG, NCAR, Boulder, CO. (March 1993), 67 pages.

1992

Mearns, L. O., C. Rosenzweig, and R. Goldberg, 1992: The Effect of Changes in Interannual
Climatic Variability on CERES-wheat Yields: Sensitivity and 2 CO Studies, J. of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 62 :159-189.
Mearns, L. O., 1992: Changes in climate variability with climate change. In S. K. Majumdar, L. S.
Kalkstein, B. Yarnel, E. W. Miller, and L. M. Rosenfeld (eds.), Global Climate Change: Implications, Challenges, and Mitigation Measures, Chapter 14. Pennsylvania Academy of Science: Easton. pp. 209-226.

1990

Mearns, L. O., S. H. Schneider, S. L. Thompson, and L. R. McDaniel, 1990: Analysis of Climate
Variability in General Circulation Models: Comparison with Observations and Changes in Variability in 2xCO2 Experiments, Journal of Geophysical Research, 95(12) :20469-20490.