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Southeast Agricultural Project
State Level Changes in Crop Yields for the Whole U.S.  
 

Crop Yield Changes for the Rest of the U.S.

To usefully model the economic response of the Agricultural Sector (using ASM) to the different sets of changes in yield, changes in yield in the rest of the United States were needed, as well as changes in yields of crops necessary for the economic model, but not explicitly modeled in our study. We developed a coarser resolution observed climate data set for the rest of the US, and developed two different scales of climate change scenarios based on the CSIRO results over the rest of the US and based on earlier runs of the RegCM for the western two thirds of the US (Giorgi et al., 1998) and the Great Lakes region (G. Bates, pers. comm.), which also used the boundary conditions from the CSIRO/GCM.

We applied these scenarios to the appropriate CERES/CROPGRO and GOSSYM crop models for the different units of the US (usually states) used in the economic model. The changes in yields for crops we did not explicitly consider (e.g., citrus, tomatoes, potatoes) were determined via a proxy method based on other crop simulations for similar studies of agricultural crop yield change over the U.S.

Maps of Percentage Change in Crop Yields (Dryland) of the U.S. for the Two Climate Change Cases Used for the Economic Model ASM

(Click on thumbnails to enlarge images)

Dryland Corn

Dryland Cotton

Dryland Sorghum

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Dryland Soybean

Dryland Wheat

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State Level Changes in Crop Yields for the Whole U.S.   |   Results of Agricultural Economic Model

Funded by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Science To Achieve Results (STAR) Program, the National Aeronautics Space Administration (NASA) Mission To Planet Earth (MTPE) - now Earth Science Enterprise (ESE), and the U.S. Department of Agriculture Economic Research Service (ERS).

For more information on this project, please contact Linda Mearns at: lindam@ucar.edu