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Southeast Agricultural Project
Detailed Percent Change in Crop Yields for the South East  
 

Applications of Crop Models to Baseline and Climate Scenarios

All crop models were exercised with the baseline (current) climate and two spatial scales of climate change scenarios for three cases: a) climate change only, b) climate change plus elevated CO2 effects, and c) the latter plus adaptations. The level of CO2 used in the crop models was 330 ppm for current conditions, the same for the climate change only case, and 540 ppm for the climate change plus elevated CO2 effect, and the adaptation case. Adaptations used were change in sowing dates and change in variety, for both the coarse and fine scale climate change scenarios. The elevated CO2 effect was assumed in the adaptation runs. Thirty-six years (1960-1995) of crop yields were produced at each 50 km grid point, for each case/scenario.

 

Select Crop:   Corn | Cotton | Rice | Sorghum | Soybean | Wheat

 
(Click on thumbnails to enlarge images)
 

Corn

Cotton

Rice

Corn: Observed Climate
Mock Simulated Yields (T/ha)

Cotton: Observed Climate
Mock Simulated Yields (T/ha)

Rice: Observed Climate
Mock Simulated Yields (T/ha)

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Corn: Climate Change Only
330 ppm CO2 (Fraction Changed)

Cotton: Climate Change Only
330 ppm CO2 (Percentage Changed)

Rice: Climate Change Only
330 ppm CO2 (Fraction Changed)

CSIRO (coarse) RegCM (fine) CSIRO (coarse) RegCM (fine) CSIRO (coarse) RegCM (fine)
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Corn: Climate Change
+ CO2 Fertilization
540 ppm CO2 (Fraction Changed)

Cotton: Climate Change
+ CO2 Fertilization
540 ppm CO2 (Percentage Changed)

Rice: Climate Change
+ CO2 Fertilization
540 ppm CO2 (Fraction Changed)

CSIRO (coarse) RegCM (fine) CSIRO (coarse) RegCM (fine) CSIRO (coarse) RegCM (fine)
Click on thumbnail to enlarge image Click on thumbnail to enlarge image Click on thumbnail to enlarge image Click on thumbnail to enlarge image Click on thumbnail to enlarge image Click on thumbnail to enlarge image

Corn: Adaptation
540 ppm CO2 (Fraction Changed)

Cotton: Adaptation
540 ppm CO2 (Percentage Changed)

Rice: Adaptation
540 ppm CO2 (Fraction Changed)

CSIRO (coarse) RegCM (fine) CSIRO (coarse) RegCM (fine) CSIRO (coarse) RegCM (fine)
Click on thumbnail to enlarge image Click on thumbnail to enlarge image Click on thumbnail to enlarge image Click on thumbnail to enlarge image Click on thumbnail to enlarge image Click on thumbnail to enlarge image
 

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(Click on thumbnails to enlarge images)

 

Sorghum

Soybean

Wheat

Sorghum: Observed Climate
Mock Simulated Yields (T/ha)

Soybean: Observed Climate
Mock Simulated Yields (T/ha)

Wheat: Observed Climate
Mock Simulated Yields (T/ha)

Click on thumbnail to enlarge image Click on thumbnail to enlarge image Click on thumbnail to enlarge image

Sorghum: Climate Change Only
330 ppm CO2 (Fraction Changed)

Soybean: Climate Change Only
330 ppm CO2 (Fraction Changed)

Wheat: Climate Change Only
330 ppm CO2 (Fraction Changed)

CSIRO (coarse) RegCM (fine) CSIRO (coarse) RegCM (fine) CSIRO (coarse) RegCM (fine)
Click on thumbnail to enlarge image Click on thumbnail to enlarge image Click on thumbnail to enlarge image Click on thumbnail to enlarge image Click on thumbnail to enlarge image Click on thumbnail to enlarge image

Sorghum: Climate Change
+ CO2 Fertilization
540 ppm CO2 (Fraction Changed)

Soybean: Climate Change
+ CO2 Fertilization
540 ppm CO2 (Fraction Changed)

Wheat: Climate Change
+ CO2 Fertilization
540 ppm CO2 (Fraction Changed)

CSIRO (coarse) RegCM (fine) CSIRO (coarse) RegCM (fine) CSIRO (coarse) RegCM (fine)
Click on thumbnail to enlarge image Click on thumbnail to enlarge image Click on thumbnail to enlarge image Click on thumbnail to enlarge image Click on thumbnail to enlarge image Click on thumbnail to enlarge image

Sorghum: Adaptation
540 ppm CO2 (Fraction Changed)

Soybean: Adaptation
540 ppm CO2 (Fraction Changed)

Wheat: Adaptation
540 ppm CO2 (Fraction Changed)

CSIRO (coarse) RegCM (fine) CSIRO (coarse) RegCM (fine) CSIRO (coarse) RegCM (fine)
Click on thumbnail to enlarge image Click on thumbnail to enlarge image Click on thumbnail to enlarge image Click on thumbnail to enlarge image Click on thumbnail to enlarge image Click on thumbnail to enlarge image

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Southeast Agricultural Project Home Page   |   Southeast Agricultural Project Overview
The Climate Change Scenario   |   Detailed % Change in Crop Yields for the South East
State Level Changes in Crop Yields for the Whole U.S.   |   Results of Agricultural Economic Model

Funded by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Science To Achieve Results (STAR) Program, the National Aeronautics Space Administration (NASA) Mission To Planet Earth (MTPE) - now Earth Science Enterprise (ESE), and the U.S. Department of Agriculture Economic Research Service (ERS).

For more information on this project, please contact Linda Mearns at: lindam@ucar.edu