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Project Description

We investigated the effects of the spatial scale of climate change scenarios on crop production in the Southeastern U.S. We have determined differences in crop responses to different scales of possible future climate: from a control and doubled CO2 experiment of a high resolution regional climate model, and from the coarse resolution General Circulation Model (GCM) that provided boundary conditions for the regional model. We applied the scenarios to crop models (i.e., CERES, CROPGRO, GOSSYM, and EPIC), which are run for conditions of 1) climate change only; 2) climate change and elevated CO2 effects; and 3) climate change, elevated CO2 effects, and management adaptations. The baseline simulated crop responses were determined from a dense network of about 500 climate stations, organized in a GIS framework, as were other inputs to the crop models.

Resulting changes in mean and variability of simulated yield from the different scenarios provide input to an agricultural sector economic model (ASM) for evaluation of economic sensitivity to the different sets of yield changes. The overarching goal is to establish the sensitivity of the regional economics to changes in crop yields resulting from a range of changes in climate at different spatial resolutions.

Project Contact Information

For more information on the Southeast Agricultural Project, please contact the project Principle Investigator:

Linda Mearns
Environmental and Societal Impacts Group
PO Box 3000
Boulder, CO 80301
lindam@ucar.edu

 
Southeast Agricultural Project Home Page   |   Southeast Agricultural Project Overview
The Climate Change Scenario   |   Detailed % Change in Crop Yields for the South East
State Level Changes in Crop Yields for the Whole U.S.   |   Results of Agricultural Economic Model

Funded by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Science To Achieve Results (STAR) Program, the National Aeronautics Space Administration (NASA) Mission To Planet Earth (MTPE) - now Earth Science Enterprise (ESE), and the U.S. Department of Agriculture Economic Research Service (ERS).

For more information on this project, please contact Linda Mearns at: lindam@ucar.edu

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