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We investigated the effects of the spatial scale of climate change scenarios on crop production in the Southeastern U.S. We have determined differences in crop responses to different scales of possible future climate: from a control and doubled CO2 experiment of a high resolution regional climate model, and from the coarse resolution General Circulation Model (GCM) that provided boundary conditions for the regional model. We applied the scenarios to crop models (i.e., CERES, CROPGRO, GOSSYM, and EPIC), which are run for conditions of 1) climate change only; 2) climate change and elevated CO2 effects; and 3) climate change, elevated CO2 effects, and management adaptations. The baseline simulated crop responses were determined from a dense network of about 500 climate stations, organized in a GIS framework, as were other inputs to the crop models.
Resulting changes in mean and variability of simulated yield from the different scenarios provide input to an agricultural sector economic model (ASM) for evaluation of economic sensitivity to the different sets of yield changes. The overarching goal is to establish the sensitivity of the regional economics to changes in crop yields resulting from a range of changes in climate at different spatial resolutions.
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Southeast Agricultural Project Overview
The Climate Change Scenario | Detailed % Change in Crop Yields for the South East
State Level Changes in Crop Yields for the Whole U.S. | Results of Agricultural Economic Model
Funded by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Science To Achieve Results (STAR) Program, the National Aeronautics Space Administration (NASA) Mission To Planet Earth (MTPE) - now Earth Science Enterprise (ESE), and the U.S. Department of Agriculture Economic Research Service (ERS).
For more information on this project, please contact Linda Mearns at: firstname.lastname@example.org