ENSO Signal - Editorial

Superstorms, Climate Change and Superstorm Seasons

As researchers interested in how climate and human activities interact, some colleagues and I have for the past few years been thinking about and starting to research the notion of “superstorms.” We were attracted to the idea because someone, for whatever reason, happened to label a severe winter storm in North America in mid-March 1993 as a “superstorm.” We wondered why. Was it because of the intensity of the event? Was it because of the impacts on society? Was it because the media might have been seeking to grab the attention of the public on an otherwise uneventful news week? [NB: As far as we can tell, it was the Weather Channel that first referred to this particular winter storm as a superstorm.]

METEOSAT infrared satellite photo March 1993 "Storm of the Century" (13 March 1993). Source: NOAA National Climatic Data Center

Climate scientists have been telling the world that, accompanying a global warming of the climate system, there would likely be an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme meteorological conditions. They have also suggested that there would likely be a change in the geographic range of those extremes, such as droughts, floods, frosts, fires, and severe storms including summer, winter, and tropical storms. This reinforced our interested in the notion of a superstorm.

In 2004, forecasters at the US National Weather Service developed an index for rating such winter storms for their level of severity. As luck would have it for our research, the 1993 wintertime superstorm turned out to have been the worst winter storm (#1) in the US during the twentieth century.

My colleagues and I decided that, by focusing our research on various physical and societal aspects of this storm, we could use it not only to understand a superstorm and its likely impacts, but also to foster cooperation among researchers from a range of academic disciplines interested in different aspects of weather, climate, climate change, and climate forecasting, as well as the societal impacts of each of them.

Weather researchers and forecasters can review the cascade of weather and weather-related forecasts that stemmed from the original 5-day forecast. Climate researchers and modelers can use Superstorm '93 in their study of seasonal variability and extremes. Climate change researchers can focus on whether this is the kind of event that is more likely to occur with greater intensity in the future. Social scientists can use this to study societal responses to forecasts. They can also use it to check how well society responded before and after it struck.

As I write this, we are in the middle of the 2004 hurricane season in the Atlantic and the typhoon season in the Pacific. Countries along the western boundary currents in both the tropical and subtropical Atlantic and Pacific oceans are under a continued threat from tropical storms of high intensity, relatively high frequency, several of which seem to be following a certain trajectory plaguing the residents of the same location. This may be an aspect of tropical storms that has not as yet been highlighted in either global warming studies or in weather studies.

We now know that several typhoons so far this year have had negative impacts on Taiwan and Japan , for example. We have also witnessed four major tropical storms that have hit some part of Florida in less than two months, causing billions in damage and several deaths. Are these unique occurrences? One can ask what such a storm tendency (i.e., lots of devastating – some might say “blockbuster” storms) means for political, economic, and social impacts and responses of affected countries in the future. What is being suggested here is that the tropical storms of 2004 in the Pacific and Atlantic might foreshadow the possibility of a new normal (i.e., average) seasonal phenomenon that might be labeled as a “superstorm season.” In fact, each storm in a series does not have to be a major one before it causes problems to society.

Climate varies from season to season, year to year, and decade to decade. We must now think about the possibility of a new kind of hurricane season, one in which there are numerous superstorm events in succession. Even though a local, state, or national society might well be able to cope today with a single such storm, maybe even two of them, it might start to think about what it might need to prepare for, as well as respond to, multiple superstorms within several weeks and within the same geographic location.

Regardless of one's view about the global warming issue, one can convincingly argue that what has happened in the recent past could happen again. Therefore, societies (researchers and political leaders alike) must begin to take such a likelihood into their strategic development and disaster avoidance planning processes.


Issue 29, October 2004
Home Editorial Articles Opportunities Publications Upcoming Meetings Past Meetings Websites Fundamental Links View in PDF Previous Issues Subscribe Search Feedback	Editorial *Superstorms, Climate Change and* *Superstorm Seasons* As researchers interested in how climate and human activities interact, some colleagues and I have for the past few years been thinking about and starting to research the notion of “superstorms.” We were attracted to the idea because someone, for whatever reason, happened to label a severe winter storm in North America in mid-March 1993 as a “superstorm.” We wondered why. Was it because of the intensity of the event? Was it because of the impacts on society? Was it because the media might have been seeking to grab the attention of the public on an otherwise uneventful news week? [NB: As far as we can tell, it was the Weather Channel that first referred to this particular winter storm as a superstorm.] METEOSAT infrared satellite photo March 1993 "Storm of the Century" (13 March 1993). Source: NOAA National Climatic Data Center Climate scientists have been telling the world that, accompanying a global warming of the climate system, there would likely be an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme meteorological conditions. They have also suggested that there would likely be a change in the geographic range of those extremes, such as droughts, floods, frosts, fires, and severe storms including summer, winter, and tropical storms. This reinforced our interested in the notion of a superstorm. In 2004, forecasters at the US National Weather Service developed an index for rating such winter storms for their level of severity. As luck would have it for our research, the 1993 wintertime superstorm turned out to have been the worst winter storm (#1) in the US during the twentieth century. My colleagues and I decided that, by focusing our research on various physical and societal aspects of this storm, we could use it not only to understand a superstorm and its likely impacts, but also to foster cooperation among researchers from a range of academic disciplines interested in different aspects of weather, climate, climate change, and climate forecasting, as well as the societal impacts of each of them. Weather researchers and forecasters can review the cascade of weather and weather-related forecasts that stemmed from the original 5-day forecast. Climate researchers and modelers can use Superstorm '93 in their study of seasonal variability and extremes. Climate change researchers can focus on whether this is the kind of event that is more likely to occur with greater intensity in the future. Social scientists can use this to study societal responses to forecasts. They can also use it to check how well society responded before and after it struck. As I write this, we are in the middle of the 2004 hurricane season in the Atlantic and the typhoon season in the Pacific. Countries along the western boundary currents in both the tropical and subtropical Atlantic and Pacific oceans are under a continued threat from tropical storms of high intensity, relatively high frequency, several of which seem to be following a certain trajectory plaguing the residents of the same location. This may be an aspect of tropical storms that has not as yet been highlighted in either global warming studies or in weather studies. We now know that several typhoons so far this year have had negative impacts on Taiwan and Japan , for example. We have also witnessed four major tropical storms that have hit some part of Florida in less than two months, causing billions in damage and several deaths. Are these unique occurrences? One can ask what such a storm tendency (i.e., lots of devastating – some might say “blockbuster” storms) means for political, economic, and social impacts and responses of affected countries in the future. What is being suggested here is that the tropical storms of 2004 in the Pacific and Atlantic might foreshadow the possibility of a new normal (i.e., average) seasonal phenomenon that might be labeled as a “superstorm season.” In fact, each storm in a series does not have to be a major one before it causes problems to society. Climate varies from season to season, year to year, and decade to decade. We must now think about the possibility of a new kind of hurricane season, one in which there are numerous superstorm events in succession. Even though a local, state, or national society might well be able to cope today with a single such storm, maybe even two of them, it might start to think about what it might need to prepare for, as well as respond to, multiple superstorms within several weeks and within the same geographic location. Regardless of one's view about the global warming issue, one can convincingly argue that what has happened in the recent past could happen again. Therefore, societies (researchers and political leaders alike) must begin to take such a likelihood into their strategic development and disaster avoidance planning processes. --Michael H. Glantz