Articles of particular interest to the ENSO community
(See previous editions of the ENSO Signal for others.)

Editor's Note
Current State of the Tropical Pacific
Global Monitoring for the Environment and Security
Draft Plan for Global Earth Observation System
Coral Reefs adapting to Climate Change
Historical Hurricane Tracks
MJO and PDO
Ocean Blueprint for the 21st Century

Articles of particular interest to the network
(See previous editions of the Newsletter for others.)

ENSEMBLES-EU
Emission-free Country
California's Climate Registry
Linking Climate, Water and Civilization
Flash!! Kyoto Protocol News
Are You a Wetland Professional?
UNEP and ECO sign Collaboration Agreement
International Day for Disaster Reduction
Blue Planet Prize Recipients 2004
Borneo Biodiversity Program Call for Papers
International Day of the World's Indigenous Peoples
CERI Energy Insight
Open Meeting 2005 Call for Sessions
Australia's National Tree Day
CHARCA
Climate and HIV/AIDS
ICIMOD

EDITOR's NOTE

Because of rising mailing costs and to cut down on the use of paper, the staff wishes to ask readers who receive a hard copy of the newsletter if you might be interested in receiving a PDF version instead. This would help us keep the newsletter alive, as well as allow it to continue to be distributed widely to those who do not have that capability. For several years the newsletter has been on line with a PDF copy available for wider distribution. If we do not hear from you by email asking to be removed from the paper edition, nothing will change. However, if you can help us to save on postage costs and paper, please send an email to hopper@ucar.edu with Network Newsletter/ENSO Signal on the subject line and with your full name and email address in the body of the email. We will take care of it from there. You will be reminded by email when a new issue is released. Thank you for helping to keep the newsletter alive and well!

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CURRENT STATE OF THE TROPICAL PACIFIC

(From the Climate Prediction Center 's ENSO Diagnostic Discussion ) www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov (as of 9 September 2004 )

Warm-episode conditions are expected to continue into early 2005. Positive SST anomalies greater than +0.5 °C persisted in the central and western equatorial Pacific during August 2004. The increase and eastward expansion of the area of anomalous warmth in the central equatorial Pacific during July - August indicate the early stages of a warm (El Niño) episode. However, in spite of the anomalous warmth in the central equatorial Pacific during August, there appears to be little or no reflection of that warmth in the average pattern of deep precipitation over the region. The NOAA operational definition for El Niño, a three-month running mean of the Nino3.4 index greater than or equal to +0.5 ° C, was satisfied for the period June - August 2004. At this time, it is not clear what, if any, impacts this weak event will have on ocean temperatures in the classical El Niño region (Nino1+2) along the west coast of South America.

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GLOBAL MONITORING FOR ENVIRONMENT AND SECURITY

The European Space Agency (ESA) Earth Observation Board met in September 2004 to discuss funding for the next stage of the ESA component of the European GMES (Global Monitoring for Environment and Security). The Board agreed to allow work to begin on the space component of GMES by approving funds for architecture studies, ground segment design, and initial definition studies for the five sentinels, which will be the backbone of the future European Earth Observation System to monitor the environment. GMES is a joint initiative of the European Commission (EC) and ESA, which aims to respond to growing concern among European policy-makers to have reliable access to information on the environment on global, regional, and local scales, with an emphasis on global change, environmental stress, and natural and human-made disasters. An Action Plan for 2004 - 2005 identifies a need to define priorities for GMES services through preparatory activities, including a study on the socioeconomic case for GMES themes. For more information, visit the GMES website at earth.esa.int/gmes or contact ESA Media Relations Simonetta Cheli. Tel: 39-06-9418-0350.

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DRAFT PLAN FOR GLOBAL EARTH OBSERVATION SYSTEM

The US White House Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is requesting comments on its draft ten-year Strategic Plan for the US Integrated Earth Observation System. The Strategic Plan reflects the coordinated efforts of 18 federal agencies under the auspices of the National Science and Technology Council. The Plan is intended to represent an important element in the third Global Earth Observations Summit to be held February 2005 in Brussels , Belgium . The concept of integration is at the heart of the draft Strategic Plan, which emphasizes that the earth is an integrated system that contains linked ecological, biological, and geological systems. Ongoing development of the Global Earth Observation System ( earthobservations.org ) is critical to the health of the planet. The text of the draft Strategic Plan is available at iwgeo.ssc.nasa.gov/draftstrategicplan and comments are due by 8 November 2004 . Please send any comments to iwgeocomments@noaa.gov

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CORAL REEFS ADAPTING TO CLIMATE CHANGE

In a recent brief communication in the journal Nature , Andrew Baker and colleagues released information about corals that were sampled before, during, and after the 1997–98 El Niño event that brought warm waters into the central and eastern Pacific Ocean , which severely affected coral reefs. The article notes that certain corals containing unusual algae have become more tolerant to high temperatures and are more abundant on reefs that have been severely affected by recent climate change. This suggests an adaptive shift in coral reefs that may alter the predicted demise of those reefs by the year 2030. Baker is in the Marine Program, Wildlife Conservation Society, Bronx , New York ; email abaker@wcs.org or see the journal article:

Baker, A.C., C.J. Starger, T.R. McClanahan, and P.W. Glynns, 2004: Coral reefs: Coral's adaptive response to climate change. Nature, 430 , 741 ( 12 August 2004 ).

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HISTORICAL HURRICANE TRACKS

The NOAA Coastal Services Center has a link to provide historical hurricane tracks. The Historical Hurricane Tracks tool is an interactive mapping application that allows one to easily search and display Atlantic Basin and East-Central Pacific Basin tropical cyclone data. If a researcher is looking for a specific storm track, the information is available by entering a zip code, latitude and longitude coordinates, city, state, or geographic region and then view the selected tracks on a map. The information is available at the NOAA Coastal Services Center website at hurricane.csc.noaa.gov/hurricanes/

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MJO AND PDO

The MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation) and the PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) are major players in variations in the climate. The MJO is the major mode of variability in the tropics on a month-to-month time scale (less than a season). The MJO involves variations in wind, sea surface temperature (SST), cloudiness, and rainfall. It affects the entire tropical troposphere, but it is most evident in the Indian Ocean and the western Pacific Ocean . In 1971 and 1972, Rol Madden and Paul Julian (both at that time at NCAR) identified the oscillation while analyzing zonal wind anomalies in the tropical Pacific. Since the 1997–98 El Niño event, interest in the MJO has increased, and numerous articles and websites on the phenomenon have appeared. Essential information was gathered during that event that may give researchers a better understanding of the different mechanisms by which SST anomalies can be induced by the MJO. The Climate Prediction Center has more information available at www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/mjo_iso.html

The PDO is a long-term fluctuation in Pacific climate, in many ways a long-lived relative of ENSO. It waxes and wanes approximately every 20 to 30 years. Some scientists speculate that the atmosphere recently entered into the negative phase of the PDO, characterized by lower-than-normal sea surface heights connecting the north, west, and southern Pacific. The term PDO was coined in the mid-1990s by Steven Hare at the University of Washington . The causes for the PDO are not currently known, but because of its apparent strong tendency to last for several decades, successful forecasting of the PDO may assist scientists in ENSO forecasting as well. NASA's Jet Propulsion Lab has an informative link about the PDO available at topex-www.jpl.nasa.gov/science/pdo.html

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OCEAN BLUEPRINT FOR THE 21ST CENTURY

In September 2004, the US Commission on Ocean Policy delivered its final report, “An Ocean Blueprint for the 21st Century” to the US President and Congress. The report calls for a new governance framework, more investments in marine science, and a new stewardship by all Americans to halt the decline of this nation's oceans and coasts. The Final Report is available electronically in PDF and contains numerous modifications from the Preliminary Report released in April 2004. The changes were made in response to comments received from 37 governors, 5 tribal leaders, one regional governors association, and 800 interested stakeholders and other technical experts. The website is at oceancommission.gov/documents/welcome.html

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ENSEMBLES-EU

A European Union (EU) project, ENSEMBLES, hosted a kick-off meeting 15­­–17 September at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg , Germany . ENSEMBLES is a five-year project under EC Framework Programme VI. Partners from the EU, Switzerland , Australia , and the United States will work on ten research themes to improve predictions of climate change and their impact. The research groups want to develop an ensemble prediction system based on state-of-the-art high-resolution, global and regional earth system models, validated against quality controlled, high-resolution gridded datasets for Europe to produce an objective probabilistic estimate of uncertainties in future climate at the seasonal, decadal, and longer timescales. The scientists want to maximize the exploitation of the results by linking the outputs to a range of applications, including agriculture, health, food security, energy, water resources, insurance and risk management. The project will be managed by a Management Board and coordinated at the Hadley Centre in Bracknell , England . For further information see www.ensembles-eu.org/

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EMISSIONS-FREE COUNTRY

Iceland is conducting an experiment that may forever change how energy is supplied. Science, politics and the corporate world are working together to break its dependence on coal, oil and gas. In the future, this small island nation will get its energy from the H 2 in H 2 O. The first steps have begun, and in 25 years the world's first hydrogen economy may be a reality: clean, sustainable, and endless supply of energy. The world is watching closely, and these pioneering Vikings are confident it will follow their lead. Iceland is an ideal laboratory for experimenting with the hydrogen economy. The country has only 280,000 inhabitants, but the infrastructure is comparable to that of any other modern industrial nation. The extreme weather conditions offer an added advantage for testing the new technology. Icelandic New Energy expects to have fully completed the transition to the clean, sustainable hydrogen economy by the year 2025. ( By Jurriaan Kamp, originally published in Ode Magazine , 1, August 2004)

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CALIFORNIA 'S CLIMATE REGISTRY

The Climate Registry registered its first private company in September 2004. The California Climate Action Registry was established by California statute as a non-profit voluntary registry for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The purpose of the Registry is to help companies and organizations with operations in the state to establish GHG emissions baselines, against which any future GHG emission reduction requirements may be applied. The Registry encourages voluntary actions to increase energy efficiency and decrease GHG emissions. Using any year from 1990 forward as a base year, participants can record their GHG emissions inventory. The State of California , in turn, will offer its best efforts to ensure that participants receive appropriate consideration for early actions in the event of any future state, federal, or international GHG regulatory scheme. Registry participants include businesses, non-profit organizations, municipalities, state agencies, and other entities. More information is available at www.climateregistry.org/

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LINKING CLIMATE, WATER AND CIVILIZATION

A new study aims to provide new insights into the key relationships between climate, water availability and human activities in the semi-arid regions of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). This study is getting under way at the University of Reading . The research will help shape our perception of the past, present and future of one of the most complex – and often troubled – parts of the world. With a major funding award of nearly £1,240,000 from the Leverhulme Trust, a team of Reading researchers, including meteorologists, hydrologists, geologists, archaeologists and geographers, will work together to assess changes in the hydrological climate in the MENA region and its impact on human communities. The one resource common to past and present activity is water, changing from a natural resource to a cultural commodity, and now having become the center of political tension. For more information, contact Craig Hillsley, University of Reading , c.hillsley@rdg.ac.uk or to learn more about the Leverhulme Trust, visit www.leverhulme.ac.uk

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FLASH!! KYOTO PROTOCOL NEWS

To enter into force, the Kyoto Protocol must be ratified by 55 Parties to the Convention, including developed countries, whose combined 1990 emissions of carbon dioxide exceed 55% of the Parties' total emissions. More than 120 countries have ratified the Protocol. When the United States (36%) rejected the Protocol in 2001, the 55% emissions threshold can now only be met with Russia 's participation (17%). The Russian Cabinet has decided to forward the Protocol to its Parliament (the Duma) for ratification. This re-energizes international cooperation on cutting greenhouse gas emissions. Russian ratification would ensure that the Protocol enters into force. Governments will discuss their efforts to achieve their Kyoto targets and other actions to address climate change at COP 10 (Tenth Session of the Conference of the Parties to the Convention). For more information, see the UNFCCC (UN Framework Convention on Climate Change) website at unfccc.int or email the Media Information Office at press@unfccc.int

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ARE YOU A WETLAND PROFESSIONAL?

The combined experience and knowledge of wetland professionals around the world form a tremendous pool of information from which wetland management, restoration, policymaking, and science can benefit. A new “Wetlands Professionals Platform” has been created by the UNESCO-IHE Institute for Water Education and the Institute for Inland Water Management and the Wetland Advisory and Training Centre (WATC) in order to facilitate the search for information and people. Any visitor of the Platform can consult the database and explore this network of wetland professionals to exchange knowledge and experience. Many in the database are alumni of the international courses on Wetland Management and Wetland Restoration, organized by WATC and UNESCO-IHE's Environmental Science Master's program. However, the world of wetland professionals is much larger, so wetland professionals worldwide are encouraged to become members and use the collaborative workspace to share information, tools, questions, and answers. The Platform is available at www.wetlandprofessionals.org or contact wetland@unesco-ihe.org

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UNEP AND ECO SIGN COLLABORATION AGREEMENT

The UN Environment Programme (UNEP) and ECO (Economic Cooperation Organization) in Tehran have signed an Agreement to strengthen environmental management in the ECO region. ECO is an intergovernmental regional organization that promotes economic, technical, and cultural cooperation among the Member States. Current membership of ECO includes Afghanistan , Azerbaijan , Iran , Kazakhstan , Kyrgyz Republic , Pakistan , Tajikistan , Turkey , Turkmenistan , and Uzbekistan . The Agreement identifies the potential for joint activities to increase the use of renewable energy, through UNEP's Solar and Wind Energy Resource Assessment Project (SWERA), strengthen environmental laws, enhance environmental and training programs, encourage eco-friendly tourism development, and improve environmental monitoring and assessment. In late 2003, UNEP assisted countries in the region to negotiate and agree to a Framework Convention for the Protection of the Caspian Sea . For more information on ECO, see the website at www.ecosecretariat.org and information on SWERA at swera.unep.net

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INTERNATIONAL DAY FOR DISASTER REDUCTION

The theme for this year's World Disaster Reduction Campaign is “learning”: learning to live with the risks that hazards pose to communities. This is one of the key ways to protect people and property. The UN ISDR (International Strategy for Disaster Reduction) is holding an international art contest for young people aged 16 and under. The best 12 pictures that illustrate what measures can be taken to reduce risk and vulnerability to disasters will be selected for publication in an ISDR 2005 calendar that will be disseminated to thousands of participants at the World Conference for Disaster Reduction (WCDR), to be held 18–22 January 2005 in Kobe , Japan . In 2004, the International Day for Disaster Reduction will be commemorated on 13 October. For information about the Campaign and art contest are available at www.unisdr.org and more information about the WCDR is available at www.unisdr.org/wcdr

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BLUE PLANET PRIZE RECIPIENTS 2004

Atmospheric scientist Susan Solomon and former Norwegian Prime Minister Gro Harlem Brundtland have been awarded the 2004 Blue Planet Prize, given each year to people who make outstanding achievements in scientific research and its application in order to help to solve global environmental problems. The prize is sponsored by the Asahi Glass Foundation in Tokyo , Japan . Solomon was given the prize for her work in identifying the mechanism through which chlorine compounds from chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) combined with Antarctica 's cold temperatures contributed to the creation of the Antarctic's ozone hole. Brundtland was the first former environment minister to head a government, and she won for putting forward the concept of sustainable development to the world, especially through her work with the World Commission on Environment and Development in the 1980s. The awards ceremony will be held on 10 November 2004 in Tokyo and the following day the recipients will give commemorative lectures at the United Nations University . For more information about the Blue Planet Prize and its laureates, visit www.af-info.or.jp

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BORNEO BIODIVERSITY PROGRAM CALL FOR PAPERS

The Borneo Biodiversity and Ecosystems Conservation (BBEC) Program, a five-year program, is entering its third year. Since its launch in February 2002, BBEC has applied an integrated approach to cover four areas essential to conservation of endangered and fragile biodiversity and ecosystems of Sabah ( Malaysia ): research and education; park management; habitat management; and public awareness. BBEC is sponsored by the Sabah State Government and the University of Malaya at Sabah with assistance from the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA). “Biodiversity Conservation As a Way of Life” is the theme of its third international conference, to be held 21–26 February 2005 in Sabah , Malaysia . The Organizing Committee solicits participation from various government agencies, industrial and commercial sectors and the public, in order to share their opinions and experiences. Potential papers from ASEAN nationals may receive sponsorship from JICA. Send abstract or inquiries to BBEC IC 2005 Secretariat, Institute for Tropical Biology & Conservation, Universiti Malaysia Sabah. Fax: 60-088-320291 (ITBC) or 60-088-250590 (JICA-BBEC); email bbec@sabah.gov.my or danielpamin@hotmail.com . Deadline for abstract submission is in November 2004. Updates and more information at www.bbec.sabah.gov.my

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INTERNATIONAL DAY OF THE WORLD'S INDIGENOUS PEOPLES

In 1994, the UN General Assembly decided that the International Day of the World's Indigenous Peoples would be observed on 9 August every year during the International Decade of the World's Indigenous Peoples, starting on 10 December 1994 . The goal of the Decade was to strengthen international cooperation for solving problems faced by indigenous people in the areas of human rights, the environment, development, education, and health. In April 2000, the Commission on Human Rights adopted a resolution to establish a Permanent Forum on Indigenous Issues (PFII) as an advisory body to the UN Economic and Social Council. It has held three annual sessions and has contributed to increasing awareness within the UN system to matters of concern to indigenous peoples. See the website at www.un.org/esa/socdev/unpfii/

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CERI ENERGY INSIGHT

CERI (Canadian Energy Research Institute) has designed a new series of short commentaries on current energy issues in Canada and North America entitled CERI Energy Insights . CERI is a cooperative research organization established through an initiative of government, academia, and industry. CERI Energy Insights is designed to give the reader a broader and deeper understanding of different energy issues and how they are interrelated. Issue #1 (September 2004) is available in PDF from Daniel Czamanski, CERI Senior Vice President, Tel: 1-403-220-2371; email dczamanski@ceri.ca

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OPEN MEETING 2005 CALL FOR SESSIONS

The Sixth Open Meeting of the Human Dimensions of Global Environmental Change Research Community has announced a Call for Sessions that is available only through its website. All interested session organizers are encouraged to submit a session proposal organized under one of the following themes: adaptive management and resilience; coastal zones and human use of oceans; environmental history; globalization and global environmental change; global environmental change and human security; human dimensions of carbon and water management, food and health; industrial transformation; institutional dimensions of global environmental change; land-use and land-cover change; methods in human-environment studies; regional approaches to human-environment studies; science-policy interface in global environmental change; sustainable development; and urbanization. The deadline for submitting a session is 15 November 2004 . Two co-organizers are required for each session proposal, and at least one co-organizer is encouraged be from the South. See the website at openmeeting.homelinux.org or www.ihdp.org and click on the 2005 Open Meeting link. The meeting will be held 9–13 October 2005 in Bonn , Germany .

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AUSTRALIA 'S NATIONAL TREE DAY

Organized nationally by Planet Ark in association with Toyota and the AMP Foundation, Australia 's Tree Day sees more than 200,000 volunteers join together to plant a million native trees and shrubs at more than 3,000 sites nationwide. Trees help to filter water, combat salinity, clean the air, and increase flows into water catchments. They also provide food and shelter to Australia 's unique wildlife and are an integral part of the country's biodiversity. Now in its ninth year, National Tree Day continues to expand and to get communities across Australia to plant trees as a way of caring for the earth. National Tree Day is held on the last Sunday of July each year, with alternative dates if that date is not an ideal time to plant. Planet Ark has a permanent website for those who wish to become involved at www.planetark.com/treeday or email treeday@planetark.com (from Planet Ark )

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CHARCA

More than 5.1 million people in India are infected with HIV: 500,000 more than at the end of 2002. Dr. Manmohan Singh, India 's new Prime Minister, is calling for social reform to fight gender inequalities that promote the spread of AIDS. The CHARCA (Coordinated HIV/AIDS Response through Capacity Building and Awareness) project is a coordinated effort to increase capacities and reduce the vulnerability of young women in India to HIV infection. CHARCA aims to reduce young women's vulnerability by providing information, improving skills, and increasing access to quality reproductive health services. It also aims to build leadership, increase support networks, and create a positive enabling environment. Through this process, it seeks to reduce HIV/AIDS among women and to empower them to protect themselves and realize their rights. The United Nations lead implementing agencies for CHARCA are the UN Development Programme, UN Population Fund, UNICEF, the UN Children's Fund, and the UN Office on Drugs and Crime. For more information, contact Kenneth Wind-Andersen, Country Coordinator, UNAIDS, 55 Lodhi Estate, New Delhi , India 110003; email windandersenk@unaids.org or Revathi Narayanan, National Project Coordinator, CHARCA, C-23 Defence Colony, New Delhi , India 110024; email revathi.narayanan@undp.org or see the website at www.youandaids.org/Charca/

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CLIMATE AND HIV/AIDS

The UN Development Programme (UNDP) Southeast Asia HIV and Development Programme (UNDP-SEAHIV) has published several papers focusing on agriculture and its importance, in itself and together with rural communities, in the HIV/AIDS epidemics. The UN FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization) Environment and Natural Resources Service has recently completed a paper on Climate and HIV/AIDS: A Hotspots Analysis for Early Warning Rapid Response Systems that forms a package with another recent paper, Environment and Agriculture Interactions: Implications for HIV and Other Infectious Diseases. This paper examines HIV/AIDS together with other infectious diseases within the immediate physical environment of rural communities and households. Both of these papers are available on the web at www.hiv-development.org/publications

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ICIMOD

ICIMOD (International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development) is the first international organization to make a commitment to improving the living conditions of mountain inhabitants in a sustainable way. ICIMOD also serves as the Secretariat for the Asia Pacific Mountain Network (APMN) and the Mountain Forum. ICIMOD is currently the Convener of the Forum. The APMN is a forum of institutions and individuals for sharing information, raising concerns, and searching for solutions to issues concerning mountain and upland areas of the Asia Pacific region. The Forum is a global network created by those interested in mountains for mutual support, information sharing, advocacy, and to develop sound policies to use the world's mountain environmental heritage in a sustainable manner. For more information, see the website at www.icimod.org

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