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Articles of interest to the ENSO community
gleaned from publications or submitted by readers.
- Current State of the Tropical Pacific
- EL Niño SSTs Set to Music
- Jason-1 Launched
- Coral Reef Questionnaire
- Rainfall and El Niño Poster
- More on ENSO and Rainfall
- COSMIC
- El Niño and Papua New Guinea
- Ocean.US Update
- Book on La Niña to be Released Soon
- El Niño and Disease
- AMS Policy Forum
- Argo Update
- STOIC: Study of Tropical Oceans in Coupled Models
- CLIVAR Working Group
- Correction
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Thank You For Your Input!
Please send news items, publications, Web sites, and articles of interest to our readers to the address below by 30 April 2002. This newsletter values input from its readers, which has now reached over 2,000. If you are interested in receiving the newsletter only on line, please subscribe there. You will be notified electronically when a new issue is released. Feedback is encouraged!
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Current State of the Tropical Pacific
(from the Climate Prediction Center's Climate Diagnostics Bulletin) www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov
The evolution toward a warm episode in the tropical Pacific continued during December 2001, as enhanced convection developed over the equatorial central Pacific for the first time since the 1997-98 episode. In addition, the Tahiti-Darwin Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and the equatorial SOI were the lowest since early 1998. By early January 2002, equatorial sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies increased to +1°C at the Date Line. The latest statistical and coupled model predictions show a spread ranging from near-normal to moderate warm episode conditions over the next 3-6 months. All of these prediction techniques have difficulty in making skillful forecasts during ENSO transition periods. Considering the observed oceanic and atmospheric circulation patterns and their recent evolution, it seems most likely that warm-episode conditions will develop in the tropical Pacific during the next 3-6 months. Forecasts for the evolution of ENSO are updated monthly in the CPC's Forecast Forum at www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/bulletin/forecast.html
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EL Niño SSTs Set to Music
 Design Rhythmics Sonification Research Lab has developed 3 "sonifications" of scientific research. Created by computer scientist and musician Marty Quinn, these sonifications demonstrate how data can be turned into music. The "El Niño SST Fluctuations" represents SSTs related to El Niño effects in the equatorial Pacific from 1868 to 1997. Depending on musical training, the listener is able to tell what year it is just by listening to the notes in the chord. Available on the website at www.quinnarts.com/srl/elnino.html in non-CD quality. A CD is available for purchase. Write to Quinn Arts, 92 High Rd., Lee, NH 03824; tel: 1-603 659-5239. Marty would be interested to hear from all listeners at mwcquinn@nh.ultranet.com
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Jason-1 Launched
Jason-1 is the first follow-on satellite to the TOPEX/Poseidon mission, which began in 1992 and has helped to improve understanding of ocean circulation and its effects on climate. The Jason-1 satellite was launched on 7 December 2001 and has begun six months of instrument calibrations with the TOPEX/Poseidon spacecraft. Jason-1 is a joint NASA/ French Space Agency oceanography satellite that will allow mission scientists to calibrate and validate its measurements with those of TOPEX/ Poseidon, in order to improve climate predictions and observing events such as El Niño. A comprehensive website gives up-to-date information on the mission status: topex-www.jpl.nasa.gov/mission/jason-1-launch.html
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Coral Reef Questionnaire
Here is a chance to participate in an initial assessment of environmental factors and their contributions to coral bleaching resistance and resilience! This will be conducted using the results of a questionnaire, which is based on a list of environmental factors. Responses will allow the testing of a range of hypotheses that various environmental factors actually confer bleaching resistance and recovery. The process is intended to help define additional criteria that might be factored into the design and selection of new coral reef MPAs (marine protected areas). This activity is a contribution to the International Biodiversity Observation Year (2001-2002). Access is at www.reefbase.org/questionaire/
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Rainfall and El Niño Poster
 The Long Paddock website contains a large amount of climatological and pastoral information in the form of reports, graphs and maps, some dating back to 1900, for Australia. The Long Paddock has a poster that shows yearly maps of rainfall relative to historical records. These can be studied with an associated graph, which plots the rise and fall of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). This poster is a useful educational tool for anyone interested in climate. It is available through the website at www.nrm.qld.gov.au/longpdk/ or by mail order from Product Distribution Dept. of Natural Resources & Mines, Locked Bag 40, Coorparoo Delivery Centre, Queensland 4151, Australia; tel: 61-7-3227-6626; fax: 61-7-3896-3510.
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More on ENSO and Rainfall
A paper written by Simon Mason (Scripps Institute of Oceanography) and Lisa Goddard (International Research Institute) examines the percentages of times that seasonal precipitation over land areas was above, near, and below normal during the 8 strongest El Niño and La Niña events. One of their key points is that the global impact of La Niña seems to be at least as widespread as that of El Niño. Also, there are a number of asymmetries in El Niño and La Niña event responses, and it should not be assumed that the typical climate anomaly of one ENSO extreme is likely to be the opposite of the other extreme. They note that, on a global basis, El Niño events are predominantly associated with below-normal seasonal rainfall over land, whereas La Niña events result in a wider extent of above-normal rainfall.
Mason, S.J. and L. Goddard, 2001: Probabilistic precipitation anomalies associated with ENSO. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 82(4), 619-638.
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COSMIC
 COSMIC (Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, & Climate) is a collaborative science project between the US and Taiwan. Its goal is to launch a constellation of six spacecraft in 2005 that will collect atmospheric remote-sensing data for weather prediction and climate research. Atmospheric radio occultation soundings will be collected under all weather conditions. The mission life of the COSMIC satellites is estimated to be about five years. COSMIC data will be freely available to the international scientific community in near real time. See the COSMIC website at www.cosmic.ucar.edu
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El Niño and Papua New Guinea
Papua New Guinea (PNG), one of the poorest countries in the world, is in El Niño's line of fire. And an El Niño has been forecast for several months from now. It is important to prepare for the possible impacts of El Niño on PNG and other vulnerable countries. A good place to start is the Virtual Library developed by the Australian National University: coombs.anu.edu.au/SpecialProj/PNG/Index.htm
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Ocean.US Update
 Ocean.US is a communications nexus for promoting and facilitating an integrated and sustained ocean observing system. It was created in 2000 by the National Oceanographic Partnership Program. Information from this system will serve national needs for detecting and forecasting oceanic components of climate variability, among others. The website is free and open to the public, and contains a searchable database of scientists worldwide, as well as bulletin boards for announcements on jobs, workshops, conferences, etc. To obtain a login name and password, email: support@ocean.us.net or call 1-540-885-5800.
Ocean.US is coordinating awards for feasibility and design studies to develop a global data collection service based on the Iridium satellite system. Omnet, Inc. has been funded to plan the development of the shore-based physical and management structure. For more information, write to omnet.service@omnet.com or Bob Heinmiller at r.heinmiller@omnet.com
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Book on La Niña to be Released Soon
 Michael Glantz has edited a book, La Niña and Its Impacts: Facts and Speculation, sparked by a La Niña Summit of researchers, forecasters, and users of forecasts, held in July 1998. While people have become familiar with El Niño and its impacts, its counterpart, La Niña, is not so well known. New studies have suggested that, for many societies, La Niña's impacts can be as devastating as those of El Niño, or more so. This book presents updated papers to introduce the reader to the science and impacts of La Niña. The book will be out in spring 2002 by the UN University Press. An abstract is available on line at www.unu.edu/unupress/new/ab-nina.html or contact D. Jan Stewart at ESIG/NCAR, PO Box 3000, Boulder, CO 80307 USA; email: jan@ucar.edu
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El Niño and Disease
In a collaborative study, NASA climatologists and US military health specialists have found that the worst outbreaks of Bartonellosis, an insect-borne disease fatal to humans, appear to be closely related to El Niño events. The group studied 2 regions in Peru: Caraz and Cuzco. The deadliest recent outbreak in these regions was during December 1997 to May 1998, which corresponds to the 1997-98 El Niño event. This research was supported by NASA's Earth Observing System/Interdisciplinary Science investigation on hydrological processes and climate, and the Global Modeling and Analysis Program of NASA, Earth Science Enterprise, and a NOAA grant. For more information, see the website at www.gsfc.nasa.gov/news-release/releases/2002/02-017.htm
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AMS Policy Forum
The American Meteorological Society (AMS) held its second Presidential Policy Forum on 16 January 2002, on "Society and The Society: How can the American Meteorological Society Better Serve Society's Needs?" The forum was designed to expand AMS members' knowledge of the types of services that can better serve the needs of the larger society, as well as to examine the role of the AMS in providing atmospheric information for the betterment of society. Two panels were asked to comment on trends in the meteorological needs of society and how the AMS may expand its services and science to better comply with the needs of society at large. The AMS is also revamping its Bulletin. For more information, see the website at www.ametsoc.org/ams/meet/82annual/82dailyevents/presidentialforum2002.html
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Argo Update
 Argo is a broad-scale array of temperature and salinity floats in the global oceans and is part of the integrated global observation strategy. Since the project began in 2000, 310 floats have become operational and fill 10% of the network. A primary focus of Argo is to enhance seasonal-to-decadal climate variability and predictability. International planning for Argo is coordinated by the Argo Science Team. The 4th meeting of the International Argo Science Team will be 12-14 March 2002 at CSIRO Marine Research, Hobart, Australia. More information about the meeting is available at www.marine.csiro.au/~wijffels/iast-4/. The Argo Information Centre is now on line at w3.jcommops.org:2005 and will give Argo Status Reports on a regular basis.
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STOIC: Study of Tropical Oceans in Coupled Models
A paper published in the January 2002 issue of Climate Dynamics by Davey and colleagues describes the behavior of 23 dynamical ocean-atmosphere models in the context of comparison with observations in a common framework. The models vary widely in design, components and purpose; however, several common features are apparent. For example, interannual variability is commonly too weak in the models: in particular, wind stress variability is low in the equatorial Pacific. The results for the fields examined indicate that several substantial model improvements are needed, particularly with regard to surface wind stress. Contact the corresponding author at mike.davey@metoffice.com.
Davey et al., 2002: STOIC: A study of coupled model climatology and variability in tropical ocean regions. Climate Dynamics, 18, 403-420.
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CLIVAR Working Group
 CLIVAR (Climate Variability & Predictability) has established a Working Group on Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction (WGSIP), and one of its key tasks is to improve seasonal predictions (for example, ENSO). Steve Zebiak, Director of Modeling and Prediction at the International Research Institute for climate prediction (IRI) in Palisades, NY is the Chair of the WGSIP. For more information, see the website at www.clivar.org/organization/wgsip/index.htm or contact Zebiak at steve@iri.columbia.edu. Address for IRI is 226 Monell Bldg., PO Box 1000, Palisades, NY 10964-8000 USA; tel: 1-845-680-4497.
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Correction
In our last ENSO Signal, we inadvertently provided an incorrect link in our "Web Resources" section to the Experimental Climate Prediction Center. The correct URL is ecpc.ucsd.edu
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