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Articles of interest to the ENSO community
gleaned from publications or submitted by readers.
- Current State of the Tropical Pacific
- Meetings Postponed
- DecVar Virtual Center
- UN Study results Available
- Climate Variability and Marine Fisheries
- Coral Network – ICRAN
- New Coral Reef Atlas
- First Nancy Foster Scholarship Awards
- El Niño and the Antarctic
- Winter Drought in Iran: Association with ENSO
- New Seasonal Climate Forecast Model
- Lautenbacher Nominated to Head NOAA
- Climate and Pacific Salmon Management
- NCDC Celebrates 50 Years
- TRMM Satellite Gets A Boost
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Thank You For Your Input!
Please send news items, publications, Web sites, and articles of interest to our readers to the address below by 31 January 2002. This newsletter values input from its readers, which has now reached over 2,000. If you are interested in receiving the newsletter only on line, please subscribe there. You will be notified electronically when a new issue is released. Feedback is encouraged!
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Current State of the Tropical Pacific
(from the Climate Prediction Center's Climate Diagnostics Bulletin)
Most oceanic and atmospheric indices reflect ENSO-neutral conditions. However, there are indications that a warm episode may develop during the next several months. Since late June 2001, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) have become anomalously warm in the central equatorial Pacific, with anomalies near 1°C in the vicinity of the date line. During the same period, subsurface temperature anomalies have remained positive in the central equatorial Pacific between 170°E and 120°W, indicating a deeper-than-normal thermocline in that region. This pattern has been observed during the early stages of past El Niño events.... There is no clear consensus among the latest statistical and coupled model predictions. However, several of these predictions indicate that positive SST anomalies will continue in the central equatorial Pacific during the remainder of 2001 and into the first half of 2002. The impacts that this warming will have on global temperature and precipitation patterns depend to a large degree on its intensity. At the moment, it seems most likely that the intensity of any warming will be weak or moderate.
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Meetings Postponed
The Third Oceanology International Pacific Rim Conference, which was scheduled for 4-6 December 2001 in Singapore, has been postponed until further notice. For more information, contact Angela Pederzolli, Project Executive, tel: 44-20-8949-9839; fax: 44-20-8949-8186; email: angela.pederzolli@spearhead.co.uk; Website: www.oipacificrim.com
JAMSTEC (Japan Marine Science and Technology Center) has postponed its 30th Anniversary Event until the international situation turns favorable. For more questions, please contact Kazuo Kotani, International Affairs Division, Planning Dept., JAMSTEC, 2-15 Natsushima-cho, Yokosuka-city, Kanagawa, Japan 237-0061; tel: 81-468-67-5587; fax: 81-468-66-3061; email: kotanik@jamstec.go.jp
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DecVar Virtual Center
 The first phase of the Virtual Center for Decadal Climate Variability Studies (DecVar) has been developed with the capabilities of the current and next-generation Internet to enable individuals, or groups of researchers, to make faster progress toward a common set of decadal climate variability research and applications goals via an international web-based center. DecVar belongs to the decadal climate variability community and solicits feedback. To become a member, fill out a membership form on the Help Desk at www.DecVar.org and you will receive a username and password and instructions on how to use the facility. The Virtual Center has many interactive capabilities where one can upload files of various types and post messages on bulletin boards. The first issue of the Center's quarterly newsletter, Subtle Signals, about various aspects of decadal variability, including societal impacts, was published in August 2001. For more information, write to mehta@eos913.gsfc.nasa.gov or see the Website at www.DecVar.org
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UN Study results Available
 A number of UN agencies and NCAR (National Center for Atmospheric Research) undertook a 19-month-long evaluation of 16 countries to find ways to improve early warning mechanisms by looking at the general preparedness in each country for the 1997-98 El Niño event. The study results suggest ways for countries to improve response strategies for future events. The book was prepared from the Executive Summaries of the 16 countries by the UN University Press, which has also released a CD-ROM with the entire report from each country. To receive a copy of the book if you are within the US, please send an email to enso@ucar.edu with your mailing address. For overseas requests or to receive the CD, write to adeel@hq.unu.edu. For requests from Africa, contact alex.alusa@unep.org. For more information on the project, see the Website at ccb.ucar.edu/un/
Glantz, M.H. (Ed.), 2001: Once Burned, Twice Shy: Lessons Learned from the 1997-98 El Niño. Tokyo, Japan: UN University Press, 294 pp.
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Climate Variability and Marine Fisheries
The Pacific Fisheries Environmental Laboratory recently developed a Website to provide a starting point for investigating the issue of climate and marine fisheries. It contains general information on climate, examples of how climate variability affects fisheries, and more specifics on research for those seeking more information. The site is at www.pfeg.noaa.gov/research/climatemarine/ and encourages user feedback. For more information, contact George Boehlert, NOAA/NMFS, PFEL, 1352 Lighthouse Ave., Pacific Grove, CA 93950; email: gboehlert@pfeg.noaa.gov
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Coral Network – ICRAN
 The International Coral Reef Action Network (ICRAN) is a collaborative effort designed to reverse the decline of the world's coral reefs. This newly implemented program combines management action, assessment, and communication to achieve its goals. The UN Foundation is providing initial support to ICRAN, with additional support planned for ICRAN's four-year Action Phase (2001-2005). The next ICRAN Steering Committee Meeting will be held 24-25 November 2001 in Maputo, Mozambique. For a copy of the complete ICRAN Strategic Plan or for more information, visit the Website at www.icran.org or write Kristian Teleki, ICRAN Project Officer, c/o UNEP World Conservation Monitoring Centre, 219 Huntingdon Rd., Cambridge CB3 0DL UK; tel: 44-1223-277314; fax: 44-1223-277136; email: icran@icran.org
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New Coral Reef Atlas
The World Atlas of Coral Reefs provides the first detailed and definitive account of the current state of the planet's coral reefs. It contains 84 full-page newly researched color maps, together with more than 200 color photos of reefs, reef animals, and images taken from space by NASA astronauts during the 2000 and 2001 Space Shuttle flights. Prepared at UNEP's World Conservation Monitoring Centre in Cambridge, UK, the Atlas can be used by scientists, students, policymakers, and planners at local, national, and international levels. To order, see the Website at www.ucpress.edu
Spalding, M.D., C. Ravilious, and E.P. Green, 2001: World Atlas of Coral Reefs. University of California Press, 424 pp., US$45 clothbound.
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First Nancy Foster Scholarship Awards
Five outstanding graduate-level researchers in the fields of oceanography, marine biology, and maritime archaeology were selected to receive the first Dr. Nancy Foster awards from a pool of more than 500 applicants. Dr. Foster was a marine biologist known for her science-based conservation of coastal aquatic life. This scholarship encourages independent graduate-level research, particularly by female and minority students. The program is administered through NOAA's National Ocean Service. A call for applications for the 2002-2003 school year will be released soon. To find information about the recipients or for more information, see the Website at fosterscholars.noaa.gov
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El Niño and the Antarctic
Scientists have found that El Niño is primarily responsible for determining the strength of the Antarctic Circumpolar Wave (ACW). During El Niño events, there is a massive buildup of warm water in the equatorial central Pacific Ocean, according to Peter Baines of CSIRO in Australia. The ACW involves large regions of warmer and cooler water within the Southern Ocean slowly rotating around Antarctica. "The irregular pattern of El Niño events during the past few years has weakened the Wave," says Dr. Baines (from Atmosphere, newsletter of CSIRO Atmospheric Research. Available on line at www.dar.csiro.au/publications/atmosphere.htm). To see a graphic representation of the ACW, see the Website at acw.ucsd.edu
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Winter Drought in Iran: Association with ENSO
An article in the Drought Network News (Vol. 13, No. 1) by M.H. Nazemosadat shows that autumn rainfall in Iran is negatively correlated with the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). This relationship was found to be strong over the southern foothills of the Alborz Mountains, northwestern, and central areas. Most parts of Iran experienced exceptional drought during 1998-2000, which extended into winter 2001 in some areas. Further research is recommended by the author to evaluate the impact of intense ENSO events on Iranian rainfall. To see the article, go to the Website at enso.unl.edu/ndmc/ or write to the author at jafar@hafez. shirazu.ac.ir
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New Seasonal Climate Forecast Model
On 6 November 2001, the Environmental Modeling Center of the National Weather Service (NWS) National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) will implement the climate atmospheric general circulation model and associated software and data sets. This model is the first of a new three-component operational seasonal climate forecast suite. The two other future components will be an ocean data assimilation system and a coupled ocean-atmosphere model for forecasting sea surface temperature anomalies up to 9 months in advance. This model has been running in an experimental mode on the NCEP computer. It was approved at the 5 September meeting of the NWS Committee on Analysis and Forecast Techniques Implementation (CAFTI). A copy of that presentation is on line at www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/cmb/cafti/presentation/. Slide 5 is reproduced here. For more information on the model, contact Dr. Hua-lu Pan, NCEP/NOAA W/NP23, 5200 Auth Rd., Room 204, Camp Springs, MD 20746; tel: 1-301-763-8000 Ext. 7234; email: hualu.pan@noaa.gov
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Lautenbacher Nominated to Head NOAA
Dr. Conrad C. Lautenbacher, Jr., retired Vice Admiral, has been nominated by President Bush to be Under Secretary of Commerce for Oceans and Atmosphere and head of NOAA. Lautenbacher is currently the President of CORE (Consortium for Oceanographic Research and Education). CORE is an association of 66 US oceanographic research institutions. For more information on CORE, visit the site at www.COREocean.org and for more information on the nomination, see www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2001/09/20010919-13.html
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Climate and Pacific Salmon Management
Effective management of marine fisheries often requires cooperation among nations who jointly exploit transboundary or migratory fish stocks. Maintaining cooperation can become difficult if sharing arrangements have not anticipated effects of climate variations, such as ENSO events or longer-term changes in the marine environment. Cooperation between Canada and the US broke down on Pacific salmon management, when increasing Alaskan salmon abundance coincided with sharp declines in west coast US salmon. These opposite trends left the 2 nations unable to achieve a balance in interceptions of one another's salmon stocks under the 1985 Pacific Salmon Treaty. A paper published by Kathleen Miller in Climatic Change describes the period of conflict and the process leading to the new Agreement. A related paper with collaborators Gordon Munro, Ted McDorman, Robert McKelvey and Peter Tydemers will be published soon. Both papers are available on line at www.isse.ucar.edu/staff/miller
Miller, K.A., 2000: Pacific salmon fisheries: Climate, information, and adaptation in a conflict-ridden context. Climatic Change, 45(1), 37-61.
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NCDC Celebrates 50 Years
 NCDC (National Climatic Data Center) is the world's largest active archive of weather data. In October 2001, NCDC celebrated its 50th anniversary of providing climate information. As NOAA's primary data storehouse, NCDC archives nearly 98% of all NOAA environmental data and annually processes millions of requests for climate data. This information is applied to the design and construction of buildings, bridges, transportation systems, and remote sensing systems. Visit the Website at lwf.ncdc.noaa.gov to learn more about NCDC.
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TRMM Satellite Gets A Boost
The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite has been recording rainfall data in the tropics since it was launched in 1997. After the satellite's successful first three years, scientists realized they could extend the mission's life and gather further vital information by raising TRMM's orbit from 350 km to 402 km above the Earth. The satellite was gently nudged to its new orbit altitude under the control of NASA engineers at Goddard Space Flight Center in Maryland. This orbital change could extend the lifespan of TRMM to somewhere between 2005 and 2007. Researchers are just now beginning to test TRMM data in weather forecast models, and an extension of TRMM mission life has potential future benefits in weather prediction. For more information on the TRMM mission, visit trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov
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