Articles of interest to the ENSO community
gleaned from publications or submitted by readers.

1. Current State Of The Tropical Pacific
2. Arctic Oscillation
3. Kelvin Wave Heads Towards South America
4. ENSO Forecasting In The USA
5. GPOS And Paleoarchives
6. Call For Papers
7. Speaking of CLIVAR…
8. Pacific Coral Confirms Climate Change In Three Oceans
9. Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA)
10. WAVES2005 Request For Proposals
11. IMAGES
12. Flagship Project: Extreme Weather Impacts
13. Pacific Currents On-Line
14. SeaDAS
15. Mary Voice Retiring

Current State Of The Tropical Pacific

(from the Climate Prediction Center's Climate Diagnostics Bulletin)

Near-normal conditions prevailed across the tropical Pacific during June 2001, as sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies were near zero and the low-level easterly (westward-flowing) winds were near normal over the central and western equatorial Pacific. Since February 2001, SST anomalies have steadily increased in the central equatorial Pacific Nino4 region, rising to their highest levels since the 1997-98 El Niño. In early July, equatorial SST anomalies of 0.5°C were observed in many areas between 160°E and 130°W. Over the past two years, there has been a gradual expansion of the area of positive equatorial subsurface temperature anomalies into the central Pacific and a gradual decrease in the strength and areal extent of the negative subsurface temperature anomalies in the eastern Pacific. Near-normal conditions are likely to continue in the tropical Pacific during the remainder of the Northern Hemisphere summer, which is consistent with most coupled model and statistical model predictions. Most predictions indicate slightly warmer than normal conditions during late 2001 and early 2002. No ENSO advisory has been issued. Forecasts for the evolution of El Niño/La Niña appear on the Forecast Forum at www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/bulletin/forecast.html. This ENSO diagnostics discussion, which replaces the ENSO Advisories, appears regularly around the 10th of each month on the CPC Web site.

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Arctic Oscillation

The Arctic Oscillation refers to opposing atmospheric pressure patterns in northern middle and high latitudes. During the twentieth century, the Arctic Oscillation alternated between its positive and negative phases; however, in the 1970s it began a trend toward its positive phase, causing lower-than-normal Arctic air pressure and higher-than-normal temperatures in much of the United States and northern Eurasia. The Arctic Oscillation is also called the Annular Mode. In an article in the 6 July issue of Science, researchers David Thompson and Mike Wallace reported finding a strong correlation between the Arctic Oscillation's negative phase and near-record cold days over a broad region of the Northern Hemisphere. A greater frequency of high winds over northern Europe and the Pacific Northwest correspond to its positive phase.

Thompson, D.W.J., and J.M. Wallace, 2001: Regional climate impacts of the Northern Hemisphere Annular Mode. Science, 293, 85-89.

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Kelvin Wave Heads Towards South America

The TOPEX/Poseidon satellite, managed by the US Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), shows an equatorial, eastward-traveling Kelvin wave (a bulge of warm water) headed toward South America at about 150°W. When this wave arrives at the west coast of South America (late July 2001), a modest warming of the eastern Pacific should occur. Kelvin waves are often seen before an El Niño develops and are triggered by westerly wind bursts in the western Pacific. The TOPEX/Poseidon data were taken during a ten-day collection cycle ending 11 June 2001. They show that the near-equatorial ocean has slowly warmed in the past year. The satellite image is available at www.jpl.nasa.gov/images/earth/pacificocean and shows that the Pacific basin continues to be dominated by the persistent Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). More information on TOPEX/Poseidon is available at topex-www.jpl.nasa.gov

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ENSO Forecasting In The USA

It is apparent that El Niño and La Niña events can have an effect on the average surface winter temperature and snowfall over North America. Two recent papers examine the regional changes in winter temperature and snowfall distributions over North America in association with ENSO events. Cathy Smith and Prashant Sardeshmukh examined December through February daily surface air temperatures 1958-1998 and found that El Niño winters tend to have smaller-than-normal temperature fluctuations over most of North America. La Niña winters had larger fluctuations with a less pronounced effect. Shawn Smith and James O'Brien compared shifts in regional snowfall distributions to ENSO winter climate studies. They identified geographic regions with internally similar ENSO warm, cold, and neutral phase snowfall distributions using a composite technique. Both studies aim to improve mitigation strategies for those adversely impacted by ENSO extreme events.

Smith, C., and P. Sardeshmukh, 2000: The effect of ENSO on the intraseasonal variance of surface temperature in winter. International Journal of Climatology, 20, 1543-1557.

Smith, S.R., and J.J. O'Brien, 2001: Regional snowfall distributions associated with ENSO: Implications for seasonal forecasting. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 82, 1179-1192.

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GPOS And Paleoarchives

Keith Alverson, Executive Director of the International Project Office at PAGES (Past Global Changes) of the IGBP (International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme) is leading a call for scientists, funding agencies, and institutional partners to establish a coordinated international Global Paleoclimate Observing System (GPOS) to complement the Global Climate, Terrestrial, and Ocean Observing Systems (GCOS, GTOS, and GOOS) that focus on contemporary observations. Some of the most valuable paleoclimate archives are being rapidly destroyed as a result of human influences, such as the rapid retreat of alpine glaciers in the tropics and temperate latitudes. Ice cores from such glaciers have been used to reconstruct temperature, precipitation, and atmospheric dust levels and provide records of changes in monsoon and ENSO events. Paleoarchives provide information about past variability of the climate system. For more information, contact Keith Alverson at the PAGES International Project Office, Bärenplatz 2, Bern, CH-3011, Switzerland; tel: 41-31-312-3133; fax: 41-31-312-3168; Web: www.pages-igbp.org or email: alverson@pages.unibe.ch

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Call For Papers

CLIVAR (Climate Variability) Exchanges is requesting the submission of papers for its next two issues. The next issue will appear in September 2001 and is dedicated to climate change prediction, detection, and attribution. Deadline for this issue is 5 August 2001. The last issue of 2001 will be dedicated to climate research in the Southern Ocean area. CLIVAR's focus on Southern Ocean Climate Variability will soon be organized through a Southern Ocean Implementation Panel. Thus, scientific input for this part of the CLIVAR program will stimulate the development of a strong Southern Ocean component within CLIVAR. Deadline for this issue is 5 November 2001. Guidelines for the submission of papers for CLIVAR Exchanges is at www.clivar.org/publications/exchanges/guidel.htm

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Speaking of CLIVAR...

CLIVAR has implemented the SPRINT (Searchable Program Information Network) database to give an overview of the status of the implementation of CLIVAR's major projects and national programs, with objectives, timelines, contacts, Web sites, and data information. This project has just begun and welcomes input about new projects. For more information, see the Web site at clivar-search.cms.udel.edu/projects/

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Pacific Coral Confirms Climate Change In Three Oceans

Coral extracted from a remote central Pacific island (Palmyra) has helped scientists at Scripps Institution of Oceanography (SIO) to construct a new record of climate conditions during the twentieth century. The record, which allowed the researchers to trace sea surface conditions over a 112-year period, may hold implications for long-range climate forecasting and predictability due to the central tropical Pacific's key influence on climate conditions around the world. The new coral record shows that a 12- to 13-year cyclical pattern of temperatures emerges in the Pacific that is related to similar patterns in the Atlantic and Indian Oceans. The coral record also revealed a rapid warming in the tropical Pacific over the last 30 years. The researchers are in the process of extending the coral-based climate record from Palmyra beyond the 112-year period. A paper based on the previous research appeared in Geophysical Research Letters:

Cobb, K.M., C.D. Charles, and D.E. Hunter, 2001: A central tropical Pacific coral demonstrates Pacific, Indian, and Atlantic decadal climate connections. Geophysical Research Letters, 28(11), 2209-2212.

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Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA)

ACIA is an international project organized under the auspices of the Arctic Council to evaluate and synthesize knowledge on climate variability, climate change, and increased ultraviolet radiation and their consequences. The goal of ACIA is to provide useful and reliable information to the governments, organizations and peoples of the Arctic on policy options to meet these changes. The process will be open and transparent, and the degree of uncertainty of the conclusions will be made clear. Three major volumes will be completed by 2004: a peer-reviewed scientific volume, a synthesis document summarizing results, and a policy document providing recommendations for coping and adaptation measures. The document preparation will be guided by an Assessment Steering Committee (ASC). For more information, contact Gunter Weller, Executive Director, ACIA Secretariat, Cooperative Institute for Arctic Research, University of Alaska, PO Box 747740, Fairbanks, AK 99775-7740; tel: 1-907-474-7371; email: gunter@gi.alaska.edu; Web: www.acia.uaf.edu

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WAVES2005 Request For Proposals

The Organizing Committee of WAVES 2005 is entertaining proposals for hosting WAVES2005 (The Fifth International Symposium of Ocean Wave Measurement and Analysis) at a location outside the United States. The 4 previous conferences have been held within the US, and the Organizing Committee is soliciting locations and dates, the names of the organizing committee, including mail and email addresses, and the level of assistance that the local organizing committee will commit to provide. This must include at the least all coordination and planning, including financial, activities. Oversight will be provided to ensure the quality of the conference series. Proposals should be sent electronically to Mike Hemsley at mike.hemsley@noaa.gov or b-edge@tamu.edu by 15 August 2001.

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IMAGES

In its fifth year, the IMAGES program (International Marine Global Change Study) now includes 24 countries. The IMAGES Office relocated last year to Kiel University in Germany. The program was initiated to respond to the challenge of understanding the mechanisms and consequences of climatic changes at time scales of decades to millennia using oceanic sedimentary records. IMAGES plans cruises to retrieve sediment cores and supports workshops and symposia. See the Web site at www.images-pages.org for more information or write to Anne Holbourn, IMAGES Office, Kiel, Germany, email: ah@gpi.uni-kiel.de

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Flagship Project: Extreme Weather Impacts

Canada has seen recent increases in human and economic costs due to weather-related disasters and the devastating January 1998 Ice Storm (which some attribute to El Niño). Research efforts of Environment Canada's Adaptation and Impacts Research Group (AIRG) are focused on understanding the impacts of weather, extreme weather events, air quality, and related environmental impacts in Canada. AIRG recently renewed a five-year agreement to support a cooperative research project with the University of Toronto until June 2005. This new flagship project deals with adaptation to weather extremes in an urban environment. For more information, see the AIRG/UofT Web site at www.utoronto.ca/env/ies/airg.htm, or contact Roger B. Street, Director, AIRG, Institute for Environmental Studies, 33 Willcocks St., Suite 1016 University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario Canada, M5S 3E8, tel: 416-739-4271; email: roger.street@ec.gc.ca

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Pacific Currents On-Line

Pacific Currents On-Line is a monthly update of news, information, and action items from Pacific Environment, a California-based nonprofit organization that works to protect the living environment of the Pacific Rim. It provides up-to-date coverage on environmental news in the region. For a free subscription to Pacific Currents, send a blank email to pacific_currents-subscribe@topica.com or write to Rory Cox, Pacific Environment, 1440 Broadway, Suite 306, Oakland, CA 94612; tel: 1-510-251-8800 Ext. 302; or Web site at www.pacificenvironment.org

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SeaDAS

SeaDAS (SeaWiFS Data Analysis System) is a comprehensive image analysis package for the processing, display, analysis, and quality control of all SeaWiFs (Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor) data products, including meteorological and ozone data. The SeaDAS package is available via anonymous FTP at seadas.gsfc.nasa.gov free of charge. SeaDAS is a stand-alone package meant for individuals or groups who would like to generate and/or analyze SeaWiFS data. SeaDAS is more general than the SeaWiFS data processing system and provides an interface to allow the user control of the input parameters of the processing programs. For more information, see the SeaDAS Web page at seadas.gsfc.nasa.gov or for more information about SeaWiFS, see the site at seawifs.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEAWIFS.html

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Mary Voice Retiring

Mary Voice is retiring from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology and plans to do a little university lecturing, assist WMO in some of its activities, and "take time to smell the roses." Here's her take on an Australian poem:

The love of short-term weather
Of tomorrow's daily max
I know and partly share it
But my love was otherwise

I love a sunburnt country
Whose climate is in my veins
And to gain an understanding
Of her droughts and flooding rains

We live:
In an El Niño-hearted country
A willful probabilistic land
A challenge for seasonal forecasts
There are few who understand

The Bureau gave me wide horizons
She sent me o'er the sea
She brought me back to work here
The wide brown land for me

Though retirement holds much pleasure
Because it isn't 9 to 5
Superannuation is my treasure
As is the Lexus in my drive

I've enjoyed the years I've worked here
With millibars and stuff
But I'm just as glad to leave here
'Cause hectopascals are too tough

No more OPRs and PIs
And endless ruddy reviews
I'll leave them to my successors
From San Tropez I'll send you news!

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