Research in the Midst of Turmoil

Michael Glantz
Environmental and Societal Impacts Group

While I was sitting in my office in Boulder, Colorado (an affluent, progressive and politically stable society) reviewing the final drafts of the findings of the 16-country case studies on El Niño impacts and response strategies, one often-overlooked consideration emerged loud and clear.

What was going on in some of those countries, not during the El Niño event (March 1997­-June 1998), but during the project's research phase (May 1999-August 2000)?

The countries in this particular study were drawn from three regions: Latin America and the Caribbean, sub-Saharan Africa, and Southeast and East Asia (please see the Web site at ccb.ucar.edu/un/). I realized that investigators seldom note the difficult conditions under which they do research. But, what was going on during their assessments? Some examples:

Fiji: A coup d'etat followed a democratic election in 1999 and the Prime Minister and members of the Fiji Parliament were held hostage for several months.

Ecuador: The president of the country was replaced by his vice president, who was in turn replaced by others; the local currency was replaced by the US dollar; access to research funds in Ecuadorian banks became unavailable.

Indonesia: This country experienced increasing demands by separatist groups, marauding militia in West Timor, and a return to above-normal rainfall, among other things, helped to reduce interest in the last El Niño.

Peru: Fujimori's presidential campaign generated violence in the streets because of an unprecedented third term which violated Peru's constitution.

Ethiopia: A war with neighboring Eritrea existed during most of the study period in addition to droughts and floods. El Niño took a back seat to conflict.

Mozambique: Early in 2000, it suffered one of its worst floods in recent history. The country's researchers became involved in emergency relief, recovery, and reconstruction activities.

China: The scientific community's interest in El Niño continued to grow while the country's political interest in El Niño was emerging but uncertain.

Kenya: The government remained under pressure to curtail corruption or lose access to sorely needed development funds from donor countries.

Cuba: The US and Cuba were involved in a protracted conflict over custody rights of a little boy (Elian Gonzalez) who survived a boat wreck in which his mother perished while escaping from Cuba to seek political asylum in the US.

At any given point in time, a government's decision makers are likely to be distracted by issues other than those related to the forecasts or impacts of an El Niño (or La Niña). Aside from having to cope with the chronic problems of water shortages or power and telephone blackouts, researchers must also cope with unstable political and economic situations that impinge upon their ability to carry out their tasks. We need to be aware of these difficult conditions and assist our colleagues in other countries as best we can.

— Michael Glantz
Environmental and Societal Impacts Group
National Center for Atmospheric Research
glantz@ucar.edu