U.S. Workshop on Climate Projections, Uncertainty,
and Scenarios for Impacts Assessment

17-19 July 2002


Wednesday, July 17
8:00-8:30 Registration
8:30-8:45 Welcome: Tim Killeen, NCAR Director
Opening Remarks: L. O. Mearns
8:45-9:00 Overview of the Workshop Goals - member of Core Steering Committee - L.O. Mearns
1. Decision Making/Resource Management
The goal of this session is to provide an overview of decision making and perspectives from resource managers.
Anne Grambsch-Chair
9:00-9:30 Ted Parson - Uncertainty and Decision Making with Climate Change
9:30-10:00 Lester Snow - Water Management
10:00-10:30 Ralph Cantral - Regional Coastal Management
10:30-11:00 BREAK
2. Impacts
How are scenarios used in different impacts contexts? What is the state of the art now? What are the future needs?
Linda Joyce - Chair
11:00-11:30 Cynthia Rosenzweig - Agriculture and Urban Environments
11:30-12:00 Aris Georgeakakos - Water Resources
12:00-1:00 LUNCH
1:00-1:30 Dominique Bachelet and Ron Neilson - Ecosystems
1:30-2:00 Richard Moss - Scenario Needs for Vulnerability Assessments
3. Forcing and Emission Scenarios
What will be the new foci in the next five years? What are climate modeling groups working on? Will there be new calculations on emissions or will new developments mainly be in refining aerosol modeling, carbon cycle coupling, land-use change scenarios?
David Schimel - Chair
2:00-2:30 Hugh Pitcher - SRES and Alternatives
2:30-3:00 V. Ramaswamy - Aerosols
3:00-3:30 Gordon Bonan and Peter Thornton - Land use/Cover Change/Carbon Cycling
3:30-4:00 BREAK
4:00-5:30 "Mixed" Break-out Groups (See Information Page on Break-out Groups)
6:00-7:00 RECEPTION (Mesa Lab)
Thursday, July 18
8:30-9:30 Reports from Break-out Groups
4. Climate Modeling - Future Projections
Each major modeling group will give a presentation on its current plans for generating global climate projections (NCAR, GFDL, GISS) and regional modeling. What do they consider the major issues to work on?
Larry Gates - Chair
9:30-10:00 Jerry Meehl - NCAR
10:00-10:30 Ron Stouffer - GFDL
10:30-11:00 BREAK
11:00-11:30 Ron Miller - GISS
11:30-12:00 Ruby Leung, PNNL - Regional Modeling
12:00-1:00 LUNCH
Data Distribution Opportunities
Tom Karl - Chair
1:00-1:15 Don Middleton, NCAR - Climate Model Data Archive
1:15-1:30 Linda Mearns, NCAR - Data Distribution Center of the IPCC TGCIA
1:30-2:00 Discussion of Data Distribution/Climate Modeling and other data needs (led by Tom Karl)
5. Quantifying Uncertainty (in emission and climate model projections)
How to include measures of uncertainty in different aspects of climate change.
Tom Wigley - Chair
2:00-2:30 Stephen Schneider - Uncertainty in the IPCC
2:30-3:00 Mort Webster - Example of Quantifying Uncertainty in Climate Model Projections
3:00-3:30 BREAK
3:30-5:30 Disciplinary Break-out Groups (See Information Page on Break-out Groups)
Friday, July 19
8:30-9:30 Reports from Break-out Groups
6. Governmental Agency Programs
  Warren Washington and Richard Moss - Co-Chairs
9:30-10:00 James Mahoney - Overview of Climate Change Research Initiative (CCRI)
10:00-10:30 BREAK
10:30-11:45 Agency Presentations/Panel
Representatives of most of the major agencies (DOE, NSF, NOAA, EPA, NASA, USGS) will give brief statements on what they see as their involvement in climate projections and scenario development and use.
Dave Bader - DOE, Anne Grambsch - EPA, Stephen Meacham - NSF, Ants Leetma - NOAA/GFDL, Tsengdar Lee - NASA, Todd Hinkley - USGS, Mike MacCracken - US National Assessment
11:45-12:30 General Discussion on CCRI and agency programs regarding climate projections, uncertainty and scenarios.
12:30-1:30 LUNCH
1:30-3:00 Wrap-up, Conclusions, Next Steps
Micro-talks in Disciplinary Break-out Groups (10 minutes each)
  1. Climate Modeling Scenario Formation
    1. Elaine Barrow - Canadian Climate Center climate modeling plan
    2. Phil Duffy - High Resolution Time Slice Experiments
  2. Impacts
    1. Jonathan Patz - Scenario Needs for Health Impacts
  3. Uncertainty
    1. Claudia Tebaldi - Example of work on uncertainty measure incorporating model bias and projection convergence

Sample General Topics for Discussion

  • How do we build a unified national program on scenario development?
  • Where do we want to see the US in five years in this research/service area?
  • How do we pragmatically build and organize the kinds of programs we want to see develop?
  • Organizational possibilities in light of the National Climate Change Research Initiative (CCRI)
  • How do we better integrate uncertainty in climate scenarios?
  • How do we prioritize research plans in the areas of climate projection and scenario generation?
  • Where does vulnerability research (i.e., bottom up) fit in?


Environmental and Societal Impacts Group
National Center for Atmospheric Research
PO Box 3000
Boulder, Colorado USA 80307
Tel: 303-497-8134; Fax: 303-497-8125

*NCAR is sponsored by the National Science Foundation.

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