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Title Socio-economic Value of Precipitation Forecast Information: A Synthesis
Type Research Project
URL no url available
Abstract A major focus of current meteorological research is improving high-impact weather forecasts for the benefit of society, the economy, and the environment. One type of forecasts that the U.S. Weather Research Program (USWRP) and U.S. National Weather Service (NWS) have identified as high-impact is Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (PQPFs). In support of USWRP and NWS goals, a project was initiated in the Societal Impacts Program of NCAR with two main objectives: 1) to synthesize existing knowledge about the societal value of improved precipitation forecasts and 2) to investigate which research methodologies were used to measure the societal value of improved precipitation forecasts. To address these questions, we have undertaken a qualitative meta-analysis of peer-reviewed published papers that empirically elicit the socioeconomic value of precipitation forecast information for individual and organizational decision-makers. The results of the meta-analysis indicate that there is no single best methodology to elicit value of precipitation forecast information in all decision contexts, nor have all the identified methodologies have been tested with empirical data. The research results synthesize current knowledge on the societal value of precipitation forecasts and identify knowledge gaps for guiding future research on the societal valuation of precipitation forecasts and other related weather forecasts.
Participants Asim Zia
Rebecca Morss
Jeff Lazo
Start Date August 2, 2004
Funders US Weather Research Program
Keywords value of information
decision making
Research Themes Use of Scientific Information in Decision Processes

 

"Because the pathway to sustainability cannot be charted in advance, it will have to be navigated through trial and error and conscious experimentation. The urgent need is to design strategies and institutions that can better integrate incomplete knowledge with experimental action into programs of adaptive management and social learning."
NRC, Our Common Journey (1999)