Title Reducing Financial Impacts on the Reinsurance Industry:Potential Use and Value of Seasonal Hurricane Forecasts
Type Research Project
URL no url available
Abstract Hurricanes can cause substantial economic damage along the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic coastlines of the United States. Insurance spreads this risk, with reinsurance serving as a buffer against catastrophic loss. Forecasts of seasonal hurricane frequency and intensity are available, being based in large part on the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. Although the fact that such forecasts possess at least limited skill is well established, their use in the reinsurance industry is not apparent. In this project, we investigate whether seasonal hurricane forecasts would be of potential use and value to reinsurance companies.
Participants Richard Katz
D. Matthew Coleman (Penn. St.)
George Young (Penn. St.)
Start Date June 2004
Funders SOARS
Keywords economic damage
El Nino events
decision analysis
risk analysis
Monte Carlo simulation
Research Themes Use of Scientific Information in Decision Processes
Assessment Methods, Products and Tools
Vulnerability, Adaptation, Thresholds and Resilience


"Because the pathway to sustainability cannot be charted in advance, it will have to be navigated through trial and error and conscious experimentation. The urgent need is to design strategies and institutions that can better integrate incomplete knowledge with experimental action into programs of adaptive management and social learning."
NRC, Our Common Journey (1999)