Projects
| Title | Reducing Financial Impacts on the Reinsurance Industry:Potential Use and Value of Seasonal Hurricane Forecasts |
| Type | Research Project |
| URL | no url available |
| Abstract | Hurricanes can cause substantial economic damage along the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic coastlines of the United States. Insurance spreads this risk, with reinsurance serving as a buffer against catastrophic loss. Forecasts of seasonal hurricane frequency and intensity are available, being based in large part on the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. Although the fact that such forecasts possess at least limited skill is well established, their use in the reinsurance industry is not apparent. In this project, we investigate whether seasonal hurricane forecasts would be of potential use and value to reinsurance companies. |
| Participants | Richard Katz D. Matthew Coleman (Penn. St.) George Young (Penn. St.) |
| Start Date | June 2004 |
| Funders | SOARS |
| Keywords | economic damage El Nino events decision analysis risk analysis Monte Carlo simulation |
| Research Themes | Use of Scientific Information in Decision Processes Assessment Methods, Products and Tools Vulnerability, Adaptation, Thresholds and Resilience |
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| "Because the pathway to sustainability cannot be
charted in advance, it will have to be navigated through trial and error and conscious experimentation. The urgent need is to
design strategies and institutions that can better integrate incomplete knowledge with experimental action into programs of
adaptive management and social learning." |
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