Title Economic Value of Ensemble Forecasts
Type Research Project
URL no url available
Abstract The economic value of ensemble-based weather or climate forecasts is generally assessed by taking the ensembles at "face value." That is, the forecast probability is estimated as the relative frequency of occurrence of an event among a limited number of ensemble members. Despite the economic value of probability forecasts being based on the concept of decision-making under uncertainty, in effect, the decision maker is assumed to ignore the uncertainty in estimating this probability. Nevertheless, many users are certainly aware of the uncertainty inherent in a limited ensemble size. Bayesian prediction is used instead in the present project, incorporating such additional forecast uncertainty into the decision process.
Participants Richard Katz
Martin Ehrendorfer (Innsbruck)
Start Date July 2003
Keywords decision analysis
risk analysis
weather forecasts
Research Themes Assessment Methods, Products and Tools


"Because the pathway to sustainability cannot be charted in advance, it will have to be navigated through trial and error and conscious experimentation. The urgent need is to design strategies and institutions that can better integrate incomplete knowledge with experimental action into programs of adaptive management and social learning."
NRC, Our Common Journey (1999)