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Scientific Highlights | Fundamental Research | Enhancing Productivity | Protection of Life and Property
Education & Outreach | Additional Educational Activities | Publications | Community Service
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ESIG FY02 Publications


Note: Bold denotes university affiliation; * denotes non-NCAR author


*Adams, R.M., B.A. McCarl, and L.O. Mearns, 2003: The economic effects of spatial scale of climate scenarios: An example from US agriculture. Climatic Change (accepted for publication).

Barlow, M., H. Cullen, and B. Lyon, 2002: Drought in Central and Southwest Asia: La Niña, the warm pool, and Indian Ocean precipitation. J. Climate, 15, 7, 697-700.

Broad, K., A.S.P. Pfaff, and M.H. Glantz, 2002: Effective and equitable dissemination of seasonal-to-interannual climate forecasts: Policy implications from the Peruvian fishery during El Niño 1997-98. Climatic Change, 54, 415-438.

Carbone, G.J., L.O. Mearns, *T. Mavromatis, *E. Sadler, and *D. Stooksbury, 2002: Measuring CROPGRO soybean performance with a long time series. Agron. J. (in press).

Chou, W.W., S.C. Wofsy, R.C. Harriss, J.C. Lin, C. Gerbig, and *G.W. Sachse, 2002: Net fluxes of CO2 in Amazonia derived from aircraft observations. J. Geophys. Res., 107, D22, 4614, 10.1029/2001D001295.

Corazza, M. E. Kalnay, D.J. Patil, R.E. Morss, M. Cai, I. Szunyogh, B.R. Hung, E. Ott, and J.A. Yorke, 2002: Use of the breeding technique to estimate the structure of the analysis "errors of the day." Nonlin. Proc. Geophys. (in press).

Cullen, H., *A. Kaplan, *P.A. Arkin, and *P.B. deMenocal, 2002: Impact of the North Atlantic Oscillation on Middle Eastern climate and streamflow. Climatic Change, 55, 3, 315-338.

Doherty, R., and M. Hulme, 2002: The relationship between the SOI and extended tropical precipitation in simulations of future climate change. Geophys. Res. Lett., 29, 10.1029/2001GL014601.

Doherty, R., L.O. Mearns, K.R. Reddy, M. Downton, and L. McDaniel, 2002: Spatial scale effects of climate scenarios on simulated cotton production in the southeastern United States. Climatic Change (accepted for publication).

Firor, J.F., 2002: Water Orr Roberts. In: Vol. 1, The Earth System: Physical and Chemical Dimensions of Global Environmental Change (M.C. MacCracken and J.S. Perry, eds.). Encyclopedia of Global Environmental Change. New York: John Wiley and Sons, 625.

Firor, J.F. and *J.E. Jacobson, 2002: The Crowded Greenhouse: Population, Climate Change, and Sustainability. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.

Giorgi, F., and L.O. Mearns, 2002: Calculation of average, uncertainty range, and reliability of regional climate changes from AOGCM simulations via the "reliability ensemble averaging" (REA) method. J. Climate, 15, 1141-1158.

Glantz, M.H., 2003: Climate Affairs: A Primer. Washington, DC: Island Press (accepted for publication).

Glantz, M.H. (ed.), 2002: La Niña and Its Impacts: Facts and Speculation. Tokyo, Japan: UN University Press.

Glantz, M.H. (ed.), 2002: Societal Aspects, volume editor of Handbook of Weather, Climate and Water (T. Potter and B. Colman, eds.). New York: John Wiley and Sons.

Glantz, M.H., 2002: The Aral Sea. In: Vol. 4, Responding to Global Environmental Change (M.K. Tolba, ed.). Encyclopedia of Global Environmental Change. New York: John Wiley and Sons, 534-536.

Glantz, M.H., 2003: The Aral Sea. Encyclopedia of World Environmental History. Great Barrington, MA: Berkshire Publishing (accepted for publication).

Glantz, M.H., 2003: El Niño: Spawner of hazards. Encyclopedia of World Environmental History. Great Barrington, MA: Berkshire Publishing (accepted for publication).

Glantz, M.H. and H. Cullen, 2003: Zimbabwe's food crisis. Environment, 45, 1, 9-11.

*Hamill, T., C. Snyder, and R.E. Morss, 2002: Analysis-error statistics of a quasi-geostrophic model using three-dimensional variational assimilation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 130, 2777-2790.

Hulme, M., G.J. Jenkins, *N. Brooks, D. Cresswell, R. Doherty, *C. Durman, *J. Gregory, *J. Lowe, and *T.J. Osborn, 2002: What is happening to global climate and why? In: Health of Effects of Climate Change in the United Kingdom. London, UK: UK Department of Health, 18-49.

Katz, R.W., M.B. Parlange, and *P. Naveau, 2002: Statistics of extremes in hydrology. Adv. Water Resour., 25, 1287-1304.

Katz, R.W., 2002: Stochastic modeling of hurricane damage. J. Appl. Meteorol., 41, 754-762.

Katz, R.W., 2002: Techniques for estimating urcertainty in climate change scenarios and impact studies. Clim. Res., 20, 167-185.

Katz, R.W., 2002: Sir Gilbert Walker and a connection between El Niño and statistics. Statistical Science, 17, 1, 97-112.

McKelvey, R. and K.A. Miller, 2002: The Pacific salmon dispute: Rationalizing a dysfunctional joint venture. Chapter 16 in Sustaining North American Salmon: Perspectives across Regions and Disciplines (K.D. Lynch, M.L. Jones, and W.W. Taylor, eds.). Bethesda, MD: American Fisheries Society, 341-368.

Mearns, L.O., F. Giorgi, C. Shields, and L. McDaniel, 2003: Climate scenarios for the southeastern US based on GCM and regional modeling simulations. Climatic Change (accepted for publication).

Miller, K.A., 2002: International salmon management: Challenges and tools. In: Atlas of the North Pacific Salmon Ecosystem (X. Augerot, ed.). Portland, OR: Wild Salmon Center (in press).

Miller, K.A., 2003: North American Pacific salmon: A case of fragile cooperation. Report of the Norway-FAO Expert Consultation on the Managmenet of Shared Fish Stocks. Rome, Italy: FAO (in press).

Miller, K.A., G.R. Munro, T.L. McDorman, R. McKelvey, and P. Tyedmers, 2001: The 1999 Pacific Salmon Agreement: A Sustainable Solution? Occasional Paper No. 47. Orono, ME: Canadian-American Public Policy Center.

Miller, K.A., and M.W. Downton, 2002: Transboundary fisheries: Pacific salmon. In: Handbook of Weather, Climate and Water (T. Potter and B. Colman, eds.). New York: John Wiley and Sons (in press).

Morss, R.E., and K.A. Emanuel, 2002: Influence of added observations on analysis and forecast errors: Results from idealized systems. Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 128, 285-321.

Ojima, D.S., M.J. Lackett, and the Central Great Plains Steering Committee and Assessment Team (K.A. Miller, member), 2002: Preparing for a Changing Climate: The Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change - Central Great Plains. Report for US Global Change Research Program. Fort Collins, CO: Colorado State University.

Reddy, K.R., P.R. Doma, L.O. Mearns, M. Boone, H.F. Hodges, A. Richardson, and V.G. Kakani, 2002: Simulating the impacts of climate change on cotton production in the Mississippi Delta. Clim. Res., 22, 3, 271-281.

Reilly, J., *F. Tubiello, B. McCarl, *D. Abers, *R. Darwin, *K. Fuglie, *S. Hollinger, *C. Izaurralde, *S. Jagtap, J. Jones, L.O. Mearns, D. Ojima, *E. Paul, *K. Paustian, *S. Riha, and N. Rosenberg, 2003: US agriculture and climate change: New results. Climatic Change (accepted for publication).

Sanchez-Azofeifa, G.A., R.C. Harriss, *.A.L. Storrier, and T. de Camino-Beck: 2002: Water resources and regional land cover change in Costa Rica: Impacts and economics. Water Resour. Dev., 18, 3, 409-424.

Serafin, R.J., *A.E. Macdonald, and R.L. Gall, 2002: Transition of weather research to operations: Opportunities and challenges. B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 83, 3, 377-392.

Wettstein, J.J. and L.O. Mearns, 2002: The influence of the North Atlantic/Arctic Oscillation on mean, variance, and extremes of temperature in the northeastern United States and Canada. J. Climate, 15, 24, 3586-3600.

Wilhelmi, O.V., K.G.Hubbard, and D.A. Wilhite, 2002: Spatial representation of agroclimatology in a study of agricultural drought. Int. J. Climatol., 22, 11, 1399-1414.

Wilhelmi, O.V., K.L. Purvis, and R.C. Harriss, 2003: Designing a geospatial information infrastructure for the mitigation of heat wave hazards in urban areas. Natural Hazards Review (accepted for publication).

Wilhelmi, O.V. and D.A. Wilhite, 2002: Assessing vulnerability to agricultural drought: A Nebraska case study. Nat. Hazards, 25, 1, 37-58.


Adeel, Z., and M.H. Glantz, 2002: Climate Affairs Capacity Building Program. Findings from First Training Workshop, South and Southeast Asian Region, held 25-28 February 2002 in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. Tokyo, Japan: UN University.

Firor, J.F., 2002: Book review of "Structure and Agency in the Scientific Diplomacy of Climate Change" by T. Skodvin. Climatic Change (in press).

Firor, J.F., 2003: Book reviews of "Beating the Heat" by J.J. Berger and "The Satanic Gases" by P.J. Michaels and R.C. Balling, Jr., for American Scientist (in press).

Glantz, M.H., 2002: Water, Climate, and Development Issues in the Amudarya Basin. Report of Workshop held 18-19 June 2002 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. Boulder, CO: UCAR.

Glantz, M.H., 2002: Water shortages and climate change collide in the Amudarya Basin. Give & Take: Civil Society in Eurasia, 5, 2/3, 27-29.

Glantz, M.H., 2002: Deja vu all over again: But it doesn't have to be that way. Guest editorial in September issue of WeatherZine. Boulder, CO: Center for Science and Technology Policy Research, University of Colorado.

Glantz, M.H., 2002: Climate-Related Flashpoints. Report of the Informal Planning Meeting held 4-5 April 2002 at Columbia University's Earth Institute. Boulder, CO: UCAR.

Katz, R.W., 2002: Do weather or climate variables and their impacts have heavy-tailed distributions? Preprints, American Meteorological Society 16th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences, Orlando, Florida, 13-17 January 2002, J84-J87.

McKelvey, R. and K.A. Miller, 2002: A stochastic split-stream harvesting model: Insights on information and the Pacific salmon war. Proceedings, International Conference on Risk and Uncertainty in Environmental and Resource Economics, Wageningen, The Netherlands, June.

Mearns, L.O., 2002: U.S. Workshop on Climate Projections, Uncertainty, and Scenarios for Impact Assessment. Workshop held 17-19 July 2002 in Boulder, Colorado. Boulder, CO: UCAR.

Miller, K.A., 2002: Book review of "The Tornado: Nature's Ultimate Windstorm' by T. Grazulis. J. of the West, 41, 4, 88.

Munro, G.R. and K.A. Miller, 2002: Cooperation and conflict in the management of transboundary fishery resources. Proceedings, Second World Congress of Environmental and Resource Economics, Monterey, California, June.

Pielke, Jr., R.A., M.W. Downton, and *J.Z. Barnard Miller, 2002: Flood Damage in the United States, 1926-2000: A Reanalysis of National Weather Service Estimates. Boulder, CO: UCAR. Interactive website at

Wahl, E.R., 2002: On the implications of ecology for incarnation: Triangle theology. Sust. Crea.

Wofsy, S.C. and R.C. Harriss, 2002: The North American Carbon Program (NACP). Report of the NACP Committee of the US Carbon Cycle Science Steering Group. Washington, DC: US Global Change Research Program.

Ye, Q. and M.H. Glantz, 2002: The 1998 Yangtze Floods: The Use of Short-term Forecasts in the Context of Seasonal-to-Interannual Water Resource Managment. Report to Office of Global Programs, NOAA. Boulder, CO: UCAR.

Table of Contents | Director's Message
Scientific Highlights | Fundamental Research | Enhancing Productivity | Protection of Life and Property
Education & Outreach | Additional Educational Activities | Publications | Community Service
Staff, Visitors and Collaborators