Publications

[ Refereed ] [ Non-Refereed ]

 

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(* denotes a non-NCAR author; Bold denotes a university affiliation.)

Refereed

*Blaha, D., *K. Bartlett, *P. Czepiel, R. Harriss, and *P. Crill, 1999: Natural and anthropogenic methane sources in New England. Atmospheric Environment, 33, 243-255.

*Brown, R.A., *N.J. Rosenberg, *W.E. Easterling, *C. Hays, and L.O. Mearns, 2000: Potential production and environmental switchgrass and traditional crops under current and greenhouse-altered climate in the MINK region of the central United States. Ecology and Agriculture Environment, 78, 31-47.

*Chamiedes, W.L., *H. Yu, *C. Liu, *M. Bergin, *Z. Ziuji, L.O. Mearns, *W. Gao, *C.S. Kiang, *R.D. Saylor, *L. Chao, *Y. Huang, *A. Steiner, and F. Giorgi, 1999: A case study of the effects of atmospheric aerosols and regional haze on agriculture: An opportunity to enhance crop yields in China through emission controls? Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 96, 13626-13633.

*Changnon, S., R.A. Pielke, Jr., *D. Changnon, D., *R.T. Sylves, and *R. Pulwarty, 2000: Human factors explain the increased losses from weather and climate extremes. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 81(3), 437-442.

*Changnon, S., R.A. Pielke, Jr., *D. Changnon, and *L. Wilkins, 2000: Policy responses to El Niño 1997-1998. Chapter 8 in S. Changnon (ed.), El Niño 1997-1998: The Climate Event of the Century. New York: Oxford University Press, 172-196.

*Cohen, S.J, K.A. Miller, *A.F. Hamlet, and *W. Avis, 2000: Climate change and resource management in the Columbia River Basin, Water International, 25(2), 253-272.

*Easterling, D.R., G.A. Meehl, *C. Parmesan, *S.A. Changnon, *T.R. Karl, and L.O. Mearns, 2000: Climate extremes: Observations, modeling, and impacts. Science, 289, 2068-2074.

*Easterling, W., L.O. Mearns, and *C. Hays, 2001: Comparison of agricultural impacts of climate change calculated from high and low resolution climate model scenarios. Part II: The effect of adaptations. Climatic Change (in press).

Glantz, M.H., 2000: Why care about El Niño and La Niña? In: *D. Halpern (ed.), Satellites, Oceanography and Society, Elsevier Oceanography Series 63, New York: Elsevier Science, 149-169.

Glantz, M.H. and *Z. Adeel, 2000: Climate Affairs as a next-generation environmental science. Global Environmental Change, 10, 81-85.

Glantz, M.H., 2000: Climate-related disaster diplomacy: A U.S.-Cuban case study. Cambridge Review of International Affairs, XIV(1), Autumn-Winter (in press).

Glantz, M.H., and *D. Jamieson, 2000: Societal response to Hurricane Mitch and intra- vs. inter-generational equity issues: Whose norms should apply? To be published in a special issue of Risk Analysis (*D. Okrent and *N. Pidgeon, eds.) (in press).

Glantz, M.H., 2000: Drought follows the plow: A cautionary note. In: Drought: A Global Assessment, D.A. Wilhite (ed.). London: Routledge, 285-291.

Glantz, M.H., 2001: Currents of Change: El Niño and La Niña Impacts on Climate and Society. Second edition, updated with new chapters on Forecasting, La Niña, and The Media. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.

Glantz, M.H. (ed.), 2001: Societal Aspects. Special volume editor of Handbook of Weather, Climate and Water (*T. Potter and *B. Colman, eds.), New York: McGraw-Hill (in press).

*Hooke, W. H., and R.A. Pielke, Jr., 2000: Short-term weather prediction: An orchestra in search of a conductor. Chapter 5 in *D. Sarewitz, R.A. Pielke, Jr., and *R. Byerly (eds.), Prediction: Decision Making and the Future of Nature. Covelo, CA: Island Press, 61-84.

Katz, R.W., 1999: Extreme value theory for precipitation: Sensitivity analysis for climate change. Advances in Water Resources 23, 133-139.

*McKelvey, R., and K.A. Miller, 2001: The Pacific salmon dispute: Rationalizing a dysfunctional joint venture. To appear in Sustaining North American Salmon: Perspectives Across Regions and Disciplines (in press).

Mearns, L.O., 2000: Climate change and variability. Chapter 1 in *K.A. Reddy and *H.F. Hodges (eds.), Climate Change and Global Crop Productivity. New York: Center for Agricultural and Biosciences International, 7-35.

Mearns, L.O., and *M. Hulme (Convening Lead Authors), 2001: Climate scenario development. Chapter 13 in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2001 WG2 Third Assessment Report, to be published by Cambridge University Press.

Mearns, L.O., *W. Easterling, and *C. Hays, 2001: Comparison of agricultural impacts of climate change calculated from high and low resolution climate model scenarios. Part I: The undertainty due to spatial scale. Climatic Change (in press).

Meehl, G.A., T. Karl, *D.R. Easterling, *S. Changnon, R.A. Pielke Jr., *D. Changnon, *J. Evans, *P. Groisman, *T.R. Knutson, *K.E. Kunkel, L.O. Mearns, *C. Parmesan, *R. Pulwarty, *T. Root, *R.T. Sylves, *P. Whetton, and *F. Zwiers, 2000: An introduction to trends in extreme weather and climate events: Observations, socioeconomic impacts, terrestrial ecological impacts, and model projections. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 81(3), 413-416.

Meehl, G.A., *F. Zwiers, *J. Evans, *T. Knutson, L.O. Mearns, and *P. Whetton, 2000: Trends in extreme weather and climate events: Issues related to modeling extremes in projections of future climate change. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 81(3), 427-436.

Miller K.A., 2000: Pacific salmon fisheries: Climate, information and adaptation in a conflict-ridden context. Climatic Change, 45, 37-61.

Miller K.A., 2000: Managing supply variability: The use of water banks in the western U.S. In: D. A. Wilhite (ed.), Drought: A Global Assessment, London: Routledge Press, 70-86.

Miller, K.A., 2001: Climate and water resources in the west: Past and future. To appear in Journal of the West (in press).

Miller, K.A. and *S. Cohen (Convening Lead Authors), 2001: North America. Chapter 15 in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2001, Working Group 2 Third Assessment Report, to be published by Cambridge University Press.

Miller, K.A., *G. Munro, *R. McKelvey, and *P. Tyedmers, 2001: Climate, uncertainty and the Pacific Salmon Treaty: Insights on the harvest management game. Proceedings of the International Institute of Fishery Economics and Trade (in press).

Miller K.A., and M.W. Downton, 2001: Transboundary fisheries: Pacific salmon. In: *T. Potter and *B. Colman (eds.), Handbook of Weather, Climate and Water. New York: McGraw-Hill (in press).

*Mosher, B.W., *P.M. Czepiel, R.C. Harriss, *J.H. Shorter, *C.E. Kolb, *J.B. McManus, *E. Allwine, and *B.K. Lamb, 1999: Methane emissions at nine landfill sites in th northeastern United States. Environmental Science and Technology, 33(12), 2088-2094.

*Ojima D., *L. Garcia, *E. Elgaali, K.A. Miller, T. Kittel and *J. Lackett, 1999: Potential climate change impact on water resources in the Great Plains, Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 35(6): 1443-1454.

*Parlange, M.B. and R.W. Katz, 2000: An extended version of the Richardson model for simulating daily weather variables. Journal of Applied Meteorology, 39, 610-622.

Pielke, Jr., R.A., and *R.A. Pielke, Sr., 2001: Extreme events (Hurricanes). In: *T. Potter and *B. Colman (eds.), Handbook of Weather, Climate and Water. New York: McGraw-Hill (in press).

Pielke, Jr., R.A., 2000: Flood impacts on society: Damaging floods as a framework for assessment. Chapter 8 in *D. Parker (ed.), Floods. London: Routledge Press, 133-155.

Pielke, Jr., R.A., 2000: Policy history of the U.S. Global Change Research Program: Part I, Administrative development. Global Environmental Change, 10, 9-25.

Pielke, Jr., R.A., 2000: Policy history of the U.S. Global Change Research Program: Part II, Legislative process. Global Environmental Change, 10, 133-144.

Pielke, Jr., R.A., 2000: Policy responses to the 1997-1998 El Niño: Implications for forecast value and the future of climate services. Chapter 7 in *S. Changnon (ed.), El Niño 1997-1998: Climate Event of the Century. New York: Oxford University Press, 172-196.

Pielke, Jr., R.A., and *R.A. Pielke, Sr. (eds.), 2000: Storms, Vols. I and II: a contribution to the nine-volume series of Natural Hazards & Disasters Major Works published by Routledge Press as a contribution to the International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction. New York: Routledge Press, 543 pp. and 345 pp.

Pielke, Jr., R.A., and *R.A. Pielke, Sr., 2000: Introduction to Storms. Chapter 1 in R.A. Pielke, Jr. and *R.A. Pielke, Sr. (eds.), Storms, a contribution to the nine-volume series of Natural Hazards & Disasters Major Works. New York: Routledge Press, 3-10.

Pielke, Jr., R.A., 2000: Reframing the US hurricane problem. In: R.A. Pielke, Jr., and *R.A. Pielke, Sr. (eds.), Storms, Volume I. London: Routledge Press, 386-397.

Pielke, Jr., R.A., and M.W. Downton, 2000: Precipitation and damaging floods: Trends in the United States, 1932-1997. Journal of Climate, 15 October, 3625-3637.

Pielke, Jr., R.A., R. Klein, and *D. Sarewitz, 2000: Turning the big knob: Energy policy as a means to reduce weather impacts. Energy and Environment, 11(3), 255-275.

Pielke, Jr., R.A., *C. W. Landsea, M. Downton, and *R. Muslin, 2000: Evaluation of Catastrophe Models Using a Normalized Historical Record: Why it is needed and how to do it. Journal of Insurance Regulation. 18, 177-194.

Pielke, Jr., R.A., 1999: Hurricane forecasting. Science, 284, 1123.

Pielke, R.A. Jr., and M.W. Downton, 1999: U.S. trends in streamflow and precipitation: Using societal impact data to address an apparent paradox. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 80(7), 1435-1436.

Pielke, Jr., R.A., *D. Sarewitz, *R. Byerly, and *D. Jamieson, 1999: Prediction in the earth sciences: Use and misuse in policy making. EOS: Transactions of the American Geophysical Society, 80, #309 ff.

*Rogers, J., *D. Legates, L.O. Mearns, and *J. Winkler, 2000: Climatology. In: *G.L. Gaile and *C.J. Willmott (eds.), Geography in America. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press.

*Sarewitz, D. and R.A. Pielke, Jr., 2000: Breaking the global-warming gridlock. The Atlantic Monthly, July, 55-64.

*Sarewitz, D., R.A. Pielke Jr., and *R.A. Byerly Jr. (eds.), 2000: Prediction: Decision-Making and the Future of Nature. Covelo, CA: Island Press.

*Sarewitz, D., R.A. Pielke Jr., and *R.A. Byerly Jr. (eds.), 2000: Decision making and the future of nature: Understanding, using, and producing predictions. Chapter 18 in D. Sarewitz, R.A. Pielke Jr., and R.A. Byerly Jr.,(eds.), Prediction: Decision Making and the Future of Nature, Covelo, CA: Island Press, 361-387.

*Sarewitz, D., R. A. Pielke, Jr., *R. Byerly, 2000: Introduction: Death, Taxes, and Environmental Policy. Chapter 1 in D. Sarewitz, R.A. Pielke, Jr., and R. Byerly, Prediction: Decision Making and the Future of Nature, Covelo, Ca: Island Press, 1-7.

*Sarewitz, D., and R.A. Pielke Jr., 1999: Prediction in science and policy. Technology in Society, 21, 121-133. Reprinted as Chapter 3 in D. Sarewitz, R. A. Pielke, Jr., and R. Byerly, (eds.), 2000: Prediction: Decision Making and the Future of Nature. Island Press.

*Schneider, S.H., *W.E. Easterling, and L.O. Mearns, 2000: Adaptation: Sensitivity to natural variability, agent assumptions and dynamic climate changes. Climatic Change, 45, 203-221.

Serafin, R.J., 1999: A Question of Balance: Private Rights and the Public Interest in Scientific and Technical Databases. Committee Chair for a Study on Promoting Access to Scientific and Technical Data for the Public Interest, National Research Council. Washington, DC: National Academy Press.

Serafin, R.J., 2000: Review of NASA's Earth Science Enterprise Research Strategy for 2000-2010. Member of Committee to Review NASA's ESE Science Plan. Space Studies Board, National Research Council. Washington, DC: National Academy Press.

Serafin, R.J. and J.W. Wilson, 2000: Operational weather radar in the United States: Progress and opportunity. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 81(3), 501-518.

Serafin, R.J. and J.W. Wilson, *J. McCarthy, and *T.T. Fujita, 2000: Progress in understanding windshear and implications on aviation. In: R.A. Pielke Jr. and R.A. Pielke Sr. (eds.), Storms, Volume II, London: Routledge Press, 237-252.

*Sontakke, N.A., D.J. Shea, R.A. Madden, and R.W. Katz, 2000: "Potential for Long-range Regional Precipitation Prediction over India." Mausam. (in press).

*Stohlgren et al. (including L.O. Mearns), 2001: Vulnerability and climate change in the Rocky Moutains and Great Basin. Fourth draft and update (in press).

*Stone, M.C., *R.H. Hotchkiss, *C.M. Hubbard, *T.A. Fontaine, L.O. Mearns, and *J.G. Arnold, 2000: Impacts of climate change on the water yield of the Missouri Basin. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (in press).

*Streets, D.G. and M.H. Glantz, 2000: Exploring the concept of climate surprise. Global Environmental Change, 10, 97-107.

*Trenberth, K.E., K.A. Miller, L.O. Mearns and *S.L. Rhodes, 2000: Effects of Changing Climate on Weather and Human Activities, Earth Science and Human Impacts Series, Global Change Instruction Program, UCAR. Sausalito, CA: University Science Books.

Tsvetsinskaya, E., L.O. Mearns, and *W. Easterling, 2000a: Investigating the effect of seasonal plant growth and development in 3-dimensional atmospheric simulations. Part I: Simulation of surface fluxes over the growing season. Journal of Climate (in press).

Tsvetsinskaya, E., L.O. Mearns, and *W. Easterling, 2000b: Investigating the effect of seasonal plant growth and development in 3-dimensional atmospheric simulations. Part II: Atmospheric response to crop growth and development. Journal of Climate (in press).

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Non-Refereed

Glantz, M.H., 1999: Romancing El Niño. Calypso Log, December, 14-15.

Glantz, M.H., 2000: Lessons Learned from the 1997-98 El Niño: Once Burned, Twice Shy? Executive Summary of "Reducing the Impact of Environmental Emergencies through Early Warning and Preparedness" study. Tokyo: United Nations University.

Glantz, M.H., 2000: Water, water, everywhere. . ., Calypso Log, August, 9-11.

Glantz, M.H., 2000: Politics and climate change: A game of COPs and robbers. Calypso Log, February, 9-11.

Katz, R.W., 2000: Stochastic modeling of damage associated with extreme weather events. Preprints, American Meteorological Society, 12th Conference on Applied Climatology, Asheville, NC, 272-275.

Mearns, L.O., 2000: The importance of spatial scale of climate scenarios for regional climate change impacts analysis: Implications for regional climate modeling activities. In: Preprints of the 10th PSU/NCAR Mesoscale User's Workshop, 21-22 June 2000, Boulder, CO. Mesoscale and Microscale Division, NCAR, 127-130.

Mearns, L.O., *G. Carbone, W. Gao, L. McDaniel, E. Tsvetsinskaya, *B. McCarl, and R. Adams, 2000: The issue of spatial scale in integrated assessments: An example of agriculture in the southeastern U.S. In: Preprints, 11th Symposium on Global Change Studies, 9-14 January 2000, Long Beach, CA. Boston: American Meteorological Society, 38-41.

Pielke, Jr., R.A., and *D. Sarewitz, 2000: Winning and losing the global warming debate. Earth Affairs.

Pielke, Jr., R.A. and *D. Sarewitz, 2000: Anyone for global warming? The inexact science of climate predictions. The Washington Times, 2 February.

Pielke, R.A., Jr., M. Downton, J.Z. Barnard Miller, *S.A. Changnon, *K.E. Kunkel, and *K. Andsager, 2001: Understanding Damaging Floods in Iowa: Climate and Societal Interactions in the Skunk and Raccoon River Basins. Report to EPRI (Electric Power Research Institute). Palo Alto, CA: EPRI.

*Sarewitz, D., R.A. Pielke Jr., and *R. Byerly Jr., 1999: Prediction: A process, not a product. Geotimes, 44(4), 29-31.

*Sarewitz, D. and R.A. Pielke, Jr., 2000: Extreme Events: Developing a Research Agenda for the 21st Century. ESIG/NCAR, and the Center for Science, Policy, and Outcomes, Boulder, CO, June.

*Vinocur, M.G., and L.O. Mearns, 2000: The effects of daily and interannual climate variability on peanut crop production in Cordoba, Argentina. In: Preprints, 11th Symposium on Global Change Studies, 9-14 January 2000, Long Beach, CA.

*Vinocur, M.G., *R.A. Seiler, and L.O. Mearns, 2000: Forecasting the impact of climate variability on peanut crop production in Argentina. Proceedings, International Forum on Climate Prediction, Agriculture, and Development, 26-29 April 2000, Palisades, New York (in press).

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