AMS Short Course on Probabilistic Forecasting

San Diego, CA, 9 January 2005

AMS Statement on "Enhancing Weather Information with Probability Forecasts"
View statement

Introduction to Probability and Probabilistic Forecasting
by Simon Mason, International Research Institute, Palisades, NY
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Statistical Methods for Probabilistic Forecasting
by Ian Jolliffe, Isle of Wight, England
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Probabilistic Forecasting in Practice
by Paul Dallavalle, National Weather Service, Camp Springs, MD 
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Probabilistic Forecasts Using Forecast Ensembles
by David Bright, Storm Prediction Center, Norman, OK
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Application of Probabilistic Forecasts: Decision Making with Forecast Uncertainty
by Rick Katz, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO
Download pdf file

Verification and Application of Probabilistic Forecasts (Practical Session)
by Simon Mason, International Research Institute, Palisades, NY

     Download exercise and answers (ppt file)

     Download game (excel file)  (This file is subject to Crown copyright protection.
     It may be downloaded for the purposes of private study and scientific research. Any
     other proposed use of the material is subject to a copyright licence available from the
     Met Office. Licences and further information can be obtained from:
     Met Office IPR Officer, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, Devon, EX1 3PB United Kingdom
     E-mail: ipr@metoffice.gov.uk)